Macro Ark
The Digital Revolution: Reshaping Work, Wages, and Workforce Dynamics
November 14, 2024
What is digitization and why does it matter?
Gartner.com defines digitization as “The process of changing from analog to digital form, also known as digital enablement. Said another way, digitization takes an analog process and changes it to a digital form without any different-in-kind changes to the process itself.”
Ever since mankind evolved from early hominids hundreds of thousands of years ago to homo sapiens, technological advancements have had a profound and ever evolving impact on human labor. While innovation has driven economic growth and created new job opportunities over the centuries, it also disrupts existing roles, requiring workers to adapt to changing demands.
For the most part, technological innovations have helped move society forward and made nations and people wealthy. There are too many throughout history to discuss them all but maybe I’ll go into some of the major technological advancements in a later post. This article will provide a high level overview of how technology in the digital age will impact the workforce.
Technological change sometimes sneaks up on us slowly. For instance the internet was invented in the early 70’s and was used only by universities and some government agencies. Fast forward a few decades to the early nineties and talk of the “world wide web” is starting to happen in more mainstream circles.
Then each year more and more people start using it. First likely at work, then at home as home computers become popular. At the time it was the natural progression of a new technology but who would have known at the time the impact the internet would have on our daily lives.
Early consumer use of the internet was basically for information and then slowly for buying products. Then add in daily tasks like email, renewing your drivers license, buying airline tickets, making appointments etc. and you can easily see how all these activities have impacted not only the consumer but the people whose businesses were put online as well as those whose jobs were displaced.
Fast forward another decade or so and suddenly we have the internet on our phones. Technology increases exponentially and now we are on the verge of the AI revolution. At least for this revolution, it seems like we can see it coming. And as technology moves ever faster we are seeing just about everything moving online and thus being “digitized”.
Below are some of the primary ways that technology shapes labor markets:
Automation and Job Displacement:
Automation in Routine Tasks: Many routine and manual jobs in industries like manufacturing, transportation, and retail are being automated, which can lead to job displacement. Robots, AI, and machine learning can perform repetitive tasks more efficiently than humans, reducing the need for human labor in certain areas. The reduction in labor also leads to a reduction in workplace compensation claim and other labor related matters.
Impact on Low-Skill Jobs: Lower-skill and lower-wage jobs are more susceptible to automation, potentially leading to higher unemployment rates among these workers. This raises concerns about wage stagnation and economic inequality, as displaced workers may face difficulties in securing new positions.
Creation of New Job Roles
Growth of Tech-Related Roles: While automation replaces certain jobs, it also creates demand for new roles in technology development, AI, data science, cybersecurity, and robotics. These high-skill positions generally require specialized education and training, offering growth opportunities for workers with these skill sets.
Emerging Sectors: Advancements in technology have fostered entirely new sectors, such as e-commerce, green energy, biotechnology and AI. These industries open up new job markets, albeit with the need for specialized expertise.
Changing Nature of Work
Increased Demand for Digital Skills: As technology becomes more embedded in all sectors, demand grows for digital skills across various levels of work. Jobs that previously required minimal technological proficiency now often require at least a basic understanding of computers, data management, and digital tools. Companies are increasingly “digitizing” their processes whereby the old ways of using paper and keeping hard copies is being replaced with everything either online, in the cloud or on company servers.
Shift to Remote and Gig Work: Technology has enabled remote work and the rise of the gig economy. Platforms like Uber, Upwork, and others allow flexible, freelance work arrangements, which offer autonomy but may lack job security, benefits, and labor protections associated with traditional employment. You hear a lot more nowadays about “side hustles”. The rise in side hustles is directly attributed to the ease with which people can make additional money thanks in large part to technology.
Reskilling and Upskilling Needs
Lifelong Learning: Workers need continuous learning to keep pace with technological advancements. Many companies and governments are investing in reskilling and upskilling programs to help workers transition to new roles as their previous jobs become obsolete.
Role of Employers and Policy Makers: Employers increasingly offer in-house training, while policymakers advocate for publicly funded training initiatives. The goal is to create a resilient workforce capable of adapting to rapid technological changes. Ideally for every job lost due to technology, one or more jobs would be created. The key here is for workers to stay ahead of the digital revolution. This sounds easy but attaining new skills isn’t always easy even if you knew how to do so. In most cases, corporations will find themselves in the position of having to train their employees.
Economic Inequality and the Digital Divide
Widening Wage Gap: High-skilled workers in tech and knowledge-intensive roles are seeing wage growth, while low-skilled workers in jobs that can be automated face stagnant wages or job loss. This contributes to a widening wage gap and economic inequality.
Access Disparities: The digital divide — unequal access to technology and digital skills — limits opportunities for certain demographics, often along socioeconomic, regional, and generational lines. Addressing this divide is crucial to ensure equal access to new labor opportunities created by technology. A growing gap between the haves and the have nots will ultimately lead to civil unrest or worse.
Productivity and Economic Growth
Increased Productivity: Technology boosts productivity, allowing companies to achieve more with fewer resources. This can lead to economic growth, lower production costs, and potentially lower consumer prices.
Shifting Value Chains: Globalization, facilitated by technology, shifts production and service tasks to regions where labor is more affordable or skilled in particular domains, affecting job availability and wages in different parts of the world.
Policy and Ethical Considerations
Regulation of AI and Automation: Policymakers grapple with regulating AI and automation to prevent excessive job loss and ensure fair labor practices. They also work to balance technological innovation with workers’ rights.
Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Social Safety Nets: Some policymakers are exploring UBI or other safety nets to support workers who may face prolonged displacement due to rapid technological shifts.
Now add in blockchain and technology really gets super charged. Investopedia defines blockchain as follows: “Blockchain is a decentralized digital ledger that securely stores records across a network of computers in a way that is transparent, immutable, and resistant to tampering. Each “block” contains data, and blocks are linked in a chronological “chain.””
So what is meant by “securely stores records”? Well once something is on the blockchain, it is there for good. Things such as contracts, licenses, titles to cars, mortgages and just about any other document we all use in our day to day lives will soon be part of the blockchain. Once on the blockchain it will be “immutable” or unable to be changed. This will allow for documents to live forever without the possibility of being lost, stolen or altered. This will inevitably lead to many industries if not going away, certainly needing fewer workers.
With the addition of AI (artificial intelligence), things are going to be supercharged. AI will displace workers in just about all fields. In particular jobs that are easily repeatable and considered low skilled.
That said, between blockchain and AI, is there a need for lawyers? Or bankers? Or mortgage brokers? Or underwriters? Unless your job has a unique value proposition that cannot be replaced and requires a human element to it, you are likely at risk of succumbing to the next revolution.
So what to do? What steps do you need to take to ensure your job doesn’t get digitized, put on the blockchain or AI’d away? Learn. Learn as much as you can about this new wave of technology and do whatever possible to stay a step ahead. Once you learn how these technologies work and can be utilized, you can identify both threats and opportunities to not only your job but to you investments as well. As the homepage of my website states….”The Future Belongs To Those Who Are Prepared”. Will you be?
In Summary:
Technological advancements in the labor market present a dual narrative of opportunity and disruption. The challenge lies in balancing the benefits of innovation with the potential negative impacts on the workforce. Efforts in reskilling, policy adaptation, and economic redistribution will be critical in ensuring that technological progress translates into shared prosperity rather than increasing inequality. The digital genie was let out of the bottle decades ago. With just about every aspect of our lives becoming digitized. and the ever increasing pace of technological change, there is too much at stake to not be ready for it.
Thanks for reading!
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
The Everything Bubble: Navigating Uncertain Economic Waters
November 1, 2024
OK, so here we are. On the eve of a presidential election, riding all time highs in the stock market, gold hovering around all time highs, residential real estate still in bubble territory in many markets. Everything is great right?
Well from certain perspectives it certainly is. The stock market refuses to acknowledge gravity and continues it multi year expansion. Although real estate is certainly seeing some signs of weakening in the more bubble like markets, it is essentially still holding up pretty well. And inflation is for the most part under control in that it’s been reduced to 2.4% for the twelve months ending in September. Everything is great right? What’s not to be euphoric about?
Interest rates were slashed 50 basis points (0.5%). The rate cut was certainly not unexpected as people have been waiting for it essentially since the beginning of the year.
What was surprising was the amount the fed rate was cut. I don’t think anyone was expecting a 50 basis point cut. This then begs the question of why? Why did Jerome Powell see a need to to cut that much? Does he know something that the rest of us don’t? It would appear that he realized that the economy was not all roses.
So what would prompt a never done before 50 basis point rate cut? It looks as though Powell perhaps sees the economy on the brink of something bad and is trying to hit the brakes before something bad actually happens.
After all, haven’t we kind of been living on borrowed time since the great financial crisis? Once the Quantitative Easing (i.e. money printing) began so many years ago, the genie of bad monetary policy was let out of the bottle — possibly for good. It began the slow but steady process of inflating the stock market and increasing the wealth inequality gap.
Coupled with artificially and unrealistically low interest rates, the housing market has now found itself in many markets in a mania phase. How about all of those people who thought they could get rich with AirBnB rentals?Fast forward 15 or so years and here we are — caught up in a merry-go-round that keeps going faster and faster with no good way to get off.
With the everything bubble upon us, wars around the globe which seem like they could get out of control at any moment, Powell was likely trying to get ahead of the pin that pricks the bubble.With the long term debt cycle coming to an end and the BRICS nations recently meeting in Russia for a BRICS summit, the long term outlook for the US and global economy doesn’t look good. The list of possible pins to prick the everything bubble is long. Let’s take a look:
US Presidential election impact: This is a complete wildcard. Whichever side loses won’t be happy and negative blowback from either side could have economic consequences.
Stock market performance: If this bubble bursts, it will likely take down the others with it.
Real estate market: Holding strong in many markets but definitely showing signs of weakness.
Inflation: Seemingly under control but a re-flash of high inflation could be devastating to the economy.
Interest rates: Likely won’t be raised again soon in light of the recent cut but should inflation spike, count on interest rates going up and threatening the economy.
Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East: Either one or both could spin out of control and wreak havoc on the global economy.
With that I would say that the US economy is resilient and I’ve heard from more than one podcast guest that they don’t see any sign of a recession in the next 6 months.So what to do now? Regardless of your level of optimism or pessimism, you must keep a watchful eye on all of the aspects of macroeconomics. Knowledge is king in uncertain times — especially when there is so much on the line and so much that could just wreck the economy and your finances as well.
Stay up to date with podcasts and news sites where you can learn as much as possible about what might be coming so as to make the best possible decisions for your financial future.
One point of note here is that gold prices are hovering around historic highs, potentially indicating economic uncertainty. Central banks in countries around the world have been stock piling gold in recent years and gold seems to be getting more attention in the US.
Typically, people flock to gold in uncertain times as gold is an inflation hedge. Maybe the people who follow macro economics closely know something………
Thanks for reading!
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
“The Best Cryptocurrency Tools for Beginners and Pros Alike”
October 2024, 2024
The cryptocurrency world has certainly turned around in 2024. It will likely still be a rollercoaster ride for the foreseeable future. Are you ready to test the water or are you already in? Regardless, read on………
So you think you want to get into Bitcoin and / or other cryptocurrencies? Well if so, there are some things you must learn about the crypto world that you’ll need to do. Not only to do research on different coins and tokens but also how understand how to buy and store them. Before I go into any detail, I’ll start by making my typical signoff of my posts. And that is…….I am not a certified financial professional and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice.
That said, I have been studying cryptocurrencies for the last 5 years and have learned enough along the way to know to know there are certain things that anyone involved in cryptocurrencies should know about.
Step number one is to learn as much as possible prior to buying any coins or tokens. I started by learning about blockchain and bitcoin by taking multiple classes on Udemy.com. Udemy is an easy way to learn pretty much any topic on line. I wanted to understand what bitcoin the coin (lower case b) was as well as Bitcoin the blockchain (upper case B). Udemy is essentially a version of Youtube where you pay for classes. It was well worth it for me as some of the courses do have downloadable material. The courses I took gave me a great foundation for understanding how the Bitcoin blockchain works.
Next up is Youube. Youtube is great since it is free and there is also almost unlimited content. Pick something about Bitcoin, blockchain, wallets etc. and someone on youtube is more than happy to tell you about it.
The other aspect of learning has to do with the coins and tokens themselves. I listen to multitude of podcasts to get insights from those heavily invested in the crypto-verse and over 5 years have gained quite a bit of knowledge on what individual projects do and how they can provide value to society.
I also subscribe to a variety of content specific to crypto such as “Alt Coin Daily”, “Coin Bureau” and “Benjamin Cowen” to name a few. Consistently watching these videos can give you virtually unlimited knowledge of crypto if you are willing to invest the time. I set a goal of watching two per day. With a 45 minute commute to work and time in the gym, I have plenty of time to watch 2 videos.
A point I want to make here is that the blockchain genie is out of the bottle as I mentioned in one of my previous posts. The technology associated with blockchain is far too beneficial to be disregarded as a fad. Think internet at this point…….. times maybe 1,000 (strictly hyperbole!).
Then understand the benefits that blockchain can provide:
- Cost Efficiency
- Speed
- Enhanced Traceability
- Smart Contracts
- Gaming/Entertainment
- Data Integrity and Ownership
- Tokenization of Assets
Knowing the benefits of blockchain will help you understand the value proposition of the different projects and thus aid with any investment decisions. As mentioned above, there is certainly no shortage of information available on the web to provide as much information as one might be looking for for any particular project.
Next up — how to buy cryptocurrency. By now, if you have any interest in cryptocurrency you’ve heard of the term “exchange”. But just in case you haven’t, an exchange is where you go to buy cryptocurrency. I would guess the most familiar exchange — at least in the US — is Coinbase. Binance could be a close second and likely one of the more popular exchanges globally.
Working with an exchange might seem intimidating at first but ultimately, once you are set up it is essentially like working with your bank. To get started, you have to first go through the administrative process of identifying who you are which can be bit disconcerning as you have to provide the exchange a good deal of your private information and in some case, even your picture.
When I first began getting involved with crypto, this was admittedly almost a non-starter for me. I didn’t like the idea of surrendering my data to an exchange that, at the time, I didn’t necessarily have a lot of trust in. Eventually, I just swallowed my concern and did it. I chalked it up to the new world I was entering and had faith that the exchanges I was getting involved with were legitimate. The next step was to set up your bank with the exchange. This was fairly simple and basically the same as setting up your bank for any payment method.
Now comes the easy part. Buying crypto. Presumably by now you’ve done some cursory amount of research on the projects you want to invest in and presumably a great deal of research.
Find the token or coin you are looking for, type in how much you want to invest and hit the buy button. Done. But not really. Well, you’re done in that you’ve officially bought cryptocurrency. But now comes the part that many people ignore. That would be taken actual possession of the coins or tokens.
Unless you do so, the cryptocurrency simply resides on the exchange. Although most major exchanges have safety protocols in place to prevent hacking, they are not hack proof. This is why people say “Not your keys, not your coins”. This is where wallets come in.
A hot wallet is a digital wallet that is connected to the internet. Coins and tokens that are stored there are more secure than on an exchange but they are still connected to the internet so are not completely hack free since it is perpetually connected to the internet.
A cold wallet- sometimes referred to as a “cold storage wallet” is not connected to the internet and is ideal for long term storage of cryptocurrencies. Since it is disconnected from the internet it is much more secure than a hot wallet. Some popular cold wallets are Trezor and Ledger. Full disclosure — I have one of each but am not being paid to sponsor either. It just so happens that those two are very common. Getting started with a cold wallet was for me confusing and somewhat intimidating but once you get the hang of it, the process if fairly simple.
The key is to be slow and methodical as you go through the steps. I also make sure I can set aside some uninterrupted time before I sit down and transfer anything from or to a cold wallet.
The critical aspect of a hot or cold wallet is the “seed phrase”. The crypto seed phrase, also known as a recovery phrase or mnemonic phrase, is a crucial security feature in cryptocurrency wallets. It typically consists of a series of 12 to 24 random words that serve as a backup for your cryptocurrency wallet.
This phrase is used to recover access to your funds if you lose your wallet or forget your password. The seed phrase is what allows you to travel anywhere in the world and take any cryptocurrency with you. If you have your seed phrase either memorized or written down you will never be without your crypto as long as you have access to the internet.
As Lyn Alden pointed out in her book “Broken Money”, having your crypto stored off line and knowing your seed phrase has enabled more than a handful of global refugees flee parts of the world and take whatever crypto they have with them. How cool is that? Crypto is completely outside the confines of any fiat currency and allows its holders the freedom to travel around the world with some measure of financial wherewithal.
Cryptocurrencies also drastically increase the speed with which financial transactions take place and at a fraction of the cost of transferring fiat currency to another person or entity. With adoption increasing, the global money transfer will allow “money” to flow instantly over distances never thought possible before. The “unbanked” have the possibility to become “banked”.
I’m extremely optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies and blockchain and I believe there is still a great deal of money to be made with this burgeoning technology. The key is to understand the technology, it’s uses and how to buy and take custody of your crypto. If I day goes by that I don’t invest some time working with or learning about cryptocurrency I feel like I wasted a day. I didn’t exploit many of the early internet opportunities and I don’t intend to make the same mistake twice……
Summary
Learning About Cryptocurrencies
- Start by learning about blockchain and Bitcoin through online courses (e.g., Udemy) and free resources like YouTube.
- Listen to podcasts and research individual projects to understand their value propositions.
Benefits of Blockchain Technology:
- Key advantages include decentralization, security, transparency, cost efficiency, and enhanced traceability.
Buying and Storing Cryptocurrencies:
- Use cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase or Binance to purchase coins or tokens
- Transfer purchased crypto to a wallet for security; hot wallets are connected to the internet, while cold wallets offer offline storage for enhanced security.
- Securely store the wallet’s seed phrase, as it’s crucial for recovering access to your funds.
Thanks for reading.
Until next time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
What’s Next For Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies?
September 24, 2024
Well here we are. Creeping up to Q4 2024. The year Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies were set to explode. So what happened and where are they headed?
I am writing this towards the end of September and it’s starting to feel like the end of the year is slowly setting in. Football season has begun, the mornings are a little chilly and the leaves on some of the trees are making their initial seasonal changes from green to the many colors of Fall.
With each passing year, time seems to go faster and faster and here we are now almost in Q4 and thus, almost the end of 2024. So what happened to all of the hope and optimism for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general for 2024? Well Bitcoin is up ~30%. Not so bad right? Who wouldn’t take a 30% increase in any investment over 9 and a half months and be happy?
But here’s the thing………if you’re a believer in Bitcoin you (we) have been conditioned to believe that this was going to be the breakout year. We were all pretty sure that with the Bitcoin ETF coming early on that the price would easily hit $100,000 and after that the sky’s the limit.
Well the much ballyhooed ETF came and went and didn’t move the needle much. And let’s not forget the highly touted Bitcoin halving. Another opportunity for a huge runup in price which also left something to be desired.
As I’ve mentioned many times before, I listen to a great deal of macroeconomic content on Youtube and podcasts. Much of this content has to do with cryptocurrencies and the drum beat of massive Bitcoin price hikes has been continuing since January.
Most of the people talking about the huge upsides are what I would consider to be experts in macroeconomics so I tend to put a great deal of credibility in what they are saying. So when is the big payout coming? I’ve heard predictions of $100,000 to $150,000 by next year. Some noted people have even called for prices of ten of millions of dollars. (several decades away however) Wouldn’t that be nice!
Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy continues to double down on his belief in Bitcoin and as of 2024 MicroStrategy owns more than 226,000 Bitcoin. He sees Bitcoin reaching $13,000,000 by 2045. But it’s not just him. The list of the ardent supporters seems to be continually growing. So why is this?
Well for starters, cryptocurrencies, although not quite mainstream, are certainly not the big mystery that they previously were. We are hearing and reading about them seemingly more each day. The Bitcoin conference this year in Nashville even featured Donald Trump as a guest speaker.
If you wonder why Trump was there, my guess is that he is looking to gain the “crypto vote”. By that I mean that is is painting himself as the “pro crypto” candidate and has promised never to implement a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) if elected. All good news to crypto adherents. At one point during his speech he said “This afternoon I’m laying out my plan to ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world and we’ll get it done,”. Well that certainly sounds encouraging!
Strong words for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. He also said that if elected he would ensure that the US Government did not sell any of the $12 billion in Bitcoin that it currently owns.
Being crypto friendly, he gives hope to those of us who have concerns about Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies being banned or severely restricted in usage. But does he mean it? As I’ve said many times in my articles……..time will tell.
But hearing statements like this reinforces beliefs of the utility and permanence of cryptocurrencies. Admittedly, sometimes you hear what you want to hear. In this case, I heard the message loud and clear.
Another reason for crypto optimism is the fact that the technology genie is out of the bottle. At this point, blockchain technology (which is the foundation of any cryptocurrency) is in use today in many applications — we are just not aware of them.
Following are some of the current areas of use for blockchain. Perhaps I’ll go into more details about individual use cases in another article but for now, let’s take a high level look:
- Cryptocurrencies and digital assets
- Supply Chain Management
- Financial Services Industry
- Identify Verification
- Healthcare Industry
- Real Estate
- Voting Systems
- The Energy Sector
- Intellectual Property / Digital Rights Ownership
- Government Services
- Gaming / Virtual Worlds
- Education / Certification
- Insurance
So regardless of what the haters might say and even if they try to regulate cryptocurrencies, it’s too late to do anything about blockchain. As stated above — The genie is out of the bottle! It’s here to stay. The question then is — will the digital coins and tokens that are associated with these blockchain applications rise in value? Will Bitcoin pull the alt coins along with it on it’s (hopefully) meteoric rise? I purposely didn’t talk about the Ethereum ETF on this post (perhaps in another).
Will that serve as additional rocket fuel for crypto? It certainly adds to the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies and I believe it has to have a positive impact on the industry in general. I for one am optimistic on the future and I hope I have many opportunities to post positive news about crypto for many years to come.
Thanks for reading!
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer finance advise. This post is for entertainment and information value on.
September 23, 2024
How Interest Rate Cuts Can Make Your Life Better (or worse)
For the most part, interest rate cuts are a good thing and can help stimulate the economy and take some of the pain out of our day to day lives. But there are downsides as well. Let’s take a look at both sides of the coin.
Well after a two year wait, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell has said that it’s time for the Fed to cut the Federal Funds Rate. Rate cuts are a form of monetary policy. As a reminder, monetary policy refers to actions taken by a central bank (in this case the US Federal Reserve) in order to achieve macro economic objectives such as reducing inflation.
This is in contrast to Fiscal Policy which refers to government actions to influence the economy through spending and taxation. The first cut will will likely come in September but at this point we don’t know how much the Fed Funds Rate will be cut.
So by now I think we all know what happens when rates go up. Anything you borrow for such as a home or car loan or credit card rates has felt the pain of the increased interest rates. But if you own or owned short term treasury bonds ( T-Bills) you certainly did okay with a guaranteed rate of return of return in the mid-single digits and bank accounts did get a little more interest each month. So that certainly helps take away some of the pain.
But now that we are staring at the looming rate cut (or cuts), what’s the benefit to individuals, companies and ultimately for the US economy. Let’s take a look at some of the benefits.
Encourages Borrowing and Spending
If the rates are reduced, it costs consumers and businesses less to borrow. This can lead to increased loans for mortgages, auto financing, and investments etc. As the cost to borrow money declines, consumers may spend more on goods and services, driving demand in the economy. This increased demand can lead to higher production and, potentially, job creation.
Stimulates Business Investment
Lower interest rates make it less expensive for businesses to finance new projects, expand operations, or invest in technology and infrastructure. This can lead to increased capital expenditures, boosting economic growth.
Supports the Housing Market
Lower interest rates reduce mortgage rates, making home ownership more affordable for consumers. This can lead to increased demand for housing, boosting home prices and stimulating the construction industry. With home ownership comes the costs of furnishing and maintaining a home in which case those associated expenses also have a positive impact on the economy. It also can lead to an increase in refinancing activity. Homeowners might decide to refinance their mortgages at lower rates, freeing up disposable income that can be spent elsewhere in the economy.
Boosts Stock Markets
Lower interest rates make bonds less attractive which can lead investors to shift their money into equities. This can drive up stock prices, benefiting shareholders and increasing wealth for investors. This can also lead to a more positive business sentiment. Rate cuts can signal that the Federal Reserve is supportive of growth, encouraging optimism in the stock market. This can lead to higher valuations and increased investment in public companies. Consumers are also could be more inclined to invest in the stock market if they feel the economy might be turning around.
Now as much as we are all generally looking forward to interest rate cuts, there are some down sides. What might those be?
Inflation Risk
The entire point of raising the Fed Funds Rate was to cool down inflation. If the rate comes down, then the real possibility exists that with the lower rates, the prices of goods and services will naturally increase. With cheaper money, aren’t we all inclined to spend more? Suddenly, a new house or car are more within reach so it’s natural for consumers to spend more. If easier money causes supply shortages then watch out — prices could spike.
Weakens the Currency
Now this is something the average person doesn’t really know about. For example, the impact of lower interest rates can reduce the return on investments denominated in U.S. dollars, leading to a weaker currency. Although this can make U.S. exports more competitive it can also increase the cost of imports, contributing to inflation.
Affects Savings and Fixed-Income Investors
This is something we’ve all likely noticed if you are paying attention. Reduced interest rates reduce the returns on savings accounts and fixed-income investments like bonds. This can be a disadvantage for retirees and others who rely on interest income as well as savers in general who have any money in cash. Knowing this, many investors will then shift to riskier assets such as stocks in search of higher gains. This could lead to bubbles in certain asset classes if risk is not properly managed.
Potential for Asset Bubbles
As mentioned in the previous point, prolonged periods of low interest rates can encourage excessive borrowing and risk-taking, potentially leading to bubbles in real estate, stocks, or other assets. This is largely due to people becoming complacent with economic fundamentals and assuming that low interest rates will always remain low and that asset prices only go up. We’ve seen a good deal of this since 2008. When these bubbles burst, they can lead to financial crises or at the very least greatly reduced asset prices.
Debt Dynamics
Lower interest rates make it easier for governments and individuals to borrow. While this can be positive in the short term, it can also lead to higher levels of debt that may become unsustainable if interest rates rise in the future.
Summary
Federal interest rate cuts are a powerful tool for stimulating the economy by encouraging borrowing, spending, and investment. However, they also come with risks, including potential inflation, asset bubbles, and long-term debt challenges. The effects of rate cuts depend on the broader economic context, and careful management is required to balance short-term benefits with long-term sustainability.
Thanks for reading!
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial professional and am in no way am qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for entertainment and information purposes only.
August 22, 2024
Just Another BRICS In The Wall
Okay, so as I wrote about in my previous article “Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?” That article talked about what will now happen since Saudi Arabia has declared that they will now sell sell oil on the world market in currencies other than US Dollars.
So with that, I thought it would make sense to make this article about the BRICS nations. It seems that with each passing day I hear at least one mention of the BRICS nations. And increasingly the mentions of the BRICS seem to carry just a bit of concern.
The reason is that the BRICS pose several potential threats to the US and Western dominance in various areas. Before I go into the the threats that the BRICS pose, I’ll remind the readers of what the BRICS are. As an additional reference see my post from January 22, 2024. That said, BRICS is an acronym, which was coined in 2001 and was originally called BRIC. BRIC referred to Brazil, Russia, India and China. In 2010, South Africa was added and the acronym became BRICS.
Now, as of 2024, an additional five nations have joined the BRICS. Those nations are Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia. Although not technically a trading block like USMCA (formerly NAFTA), the EU or ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations), the BRICS were intended to act in a spirit of economic cooperation and address economic challenges, trade and financial cooperation.
The idea of establishing the BRIC(S) nation was to cultivate investment that would in turn spur their economies and therefore increase the need for goods and services, whether from the West or domestically. The thought was that by growing these economies which had 40% of the world’s population, the entire global economy would expand.
So why are the BRICS suddenly getting more and more attention? Well for one, there seems to be a line of countries looking to join BRICS. Countries such as Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey and Pakistan to name a few. The ever growing list of countries that join BRICS is turning very problematic to the West as they pose a direct challenge to Western hegemony not only financially but eventually they could also pose a collective military challenge. We are already seeing this with the recent joint bomber exercises between Russia and China near Alaska. China and Russia alone constitute enough of a threat by themselves. Add in the other BRICS nations, and now a military threat seems a bit more ominous.
Now with the recent news that Saudi Arabia will sell oil in currencies other that the US Dollar, aka “petrodollar”, there is a real cause for concern for the US. Not only does the this ultimately weaken the dollar due to reduced global demand but it will strengthen other currencies (likely the Chinese Yuan among others) and increase the overall financial strength of the BRICS nations.
And in what appears to be anther direct challenge to the West, the BRICS nations do seem to have been buying up tons of gold over the last few years. To be fair however, not only the BRICS nations have been doing so. Many central banks around the world are stockpiling gold.
This begs the question, are the BRICS nations working towards a new currency to challenge the US Dollar — one that is backed by gold? That certainly seems like the game plan. If this is truly the case, in my humble opinion, this would not be good for the United States since it would be a direct challenge to the US Dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency.
As with the case of the petrodollar, if there is not need for US Dollars around the world to be used as reserve currency, those dollars will ultimately find their way home to the US and the knock-on effect of this would be devastating. Think about what the money printing did to prices in the US over the last several years. This would be far worse due to the amount of dollars coming home as well as the diminished need to send any more dollars abroad.So what’s in it for the BRICS nations? What would a country get out of joining BRICS? There has to be some incentive. Let’s take a look at some of the benefits a country might get from joining the BRICS.
Economic Influence
BRICS continue their efforts to de-dollarization. The BRICS nations continue to work toward reducing their economic dependence on the US Dollar for trade. As I mentioned above, Saudi Arabia has recently started selling oil in currencies other than US Dollars. Other BRICS countries are following suit. While this effort helps the currencies of the BRICS, it also has the negative effect of undermining the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency, potentially destabilizing the US economy and reducing its influence over global financial systems.
Geopolitical Power
BRICS also pose a threat to the unipolar dominance of the US and its Western allies. The inclusion of new members like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt further strengthens this position by incorporating key geopolitical players from the Middle East and Africa. Also, the deepening relationships among BRICS nations, especially between China and Russia, counterbalance Western alliances such as NATO. This strategic alignment can lead to coordinated political and military efforts that challenge US interests globally.
Trade and Economic Policies
The BRICS nations are also working towards creating new economic partnerships that could potentially exclude Western countries. This also includes the New Development Bank, which provides an alternative to Western-dominated institutions like the World Bank and IMF. Also, by forming alliances with resource-rich countries, BRICS can influence global supply chains for critical resources like oil, rare earth elements, and agricultural products, which could disadvantage Western economies dependent on these imports.
Technological and Scientific Advancements
As with any types of agreements and partnerships, technological sharing and cooperation are almost inevitable. The fact that the BRICS nations are clearly aligning for financial reasons seems to be signaling a challenge to Western technological superiority as well. Also, establishing innovation hubs and research centers within BRICS nations can attract talent and investments away from traditional Western tech centers like Silicon Valley.
Military Capabilities
BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, are enhancing their military capabilities and conducting joint exercises. This military cooperation can pose a direct challenge to US military presence and influence in key regions like Asia and Eastern Europe.
In summary, it certainly does appear that the BRICS are aligning to pose a direct challenge to the West in many areas. Financially, one that might with a currency backed by gold. Presumably, the more international clout the BRICS get, the more attractive it becomes to other countries making them want to join.
So is it time for the West to push the panic button, seeing this global challenge to Western hegemony? I would say not necessarily yet but to ignore BRICS and the challenge it poses to the West probably wouldn’t be the smartest thing at this point. And ass I’ve finished many of my articles I’ll close with this again………only time will tell. Thanks for reading.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This article is for informational and entertainment purposes only.
July 13, 2024
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
So here we are folks. It finally happened. Saudi Arabia recently stated that they would no longer sell oil in USD$. Does this decision mark a significant shift in the global oil market or is it just a big nuthin burger?
Traditionally, oil transactions have been conducted in U.S. dollars, a practice that has reinforced the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency. By moving away from the dollar, Saudi Arabia could be aiming to diversify its economic dependencies and reduce its vulnerability to U.S. economic policies and sanctions.
This change could have wide-reaching implications, potentially encouraging other oil-producing nations to follow suit and impacting global currency markets.
Okay, so what does this really mean? As some of you readers might know, with the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in 1973, the US entered an agreement with Saudi Arabia with an arrangement that was designed to benefit both countries whereby the US would assist with military and economic aid if Saudi Arabia agreed to only sell oil on the world market in US Dollars.
The question then is, why would the US want Saudi Arabian oil sold only in US Dollars on the world market? Well, this might come as no surprise but it was to created demand for US Dollars which strengthened the dollar. This also added economic stability to the Saudi economy and introduced the era of the “petrodollar”.
So over the last 50 years, any country that wanted to buy Saudi oil had to purchase “petrodollars”. Not a bad arrangement for the US. The problem now is that with Saudi Arabia selling oil in currencies other than dollars, what will become of all those dollars outside of the US?
Well if you said they come flooding back to the US, you would be right. That is of course an extreme example. But some will definitely find their way back home and this will lead to some degree of inflation. The simple math is that the more that come back to the US, the higher the inflation. In reality it’s a little more complicated than that. But it will still be a net negative for the US economy.
Certainly not what anyone in the US wants at this point. Unfortunately, there just doesn’t seem to be a way to keep those dollars at bay. If inflation does start ticking upward as a result of the new influx of dollars coming home, the Federal Reserve could end up raising interest rates again. The news isn’t all bad however. A weaker dollar could make US exports cheaper and potentially boost the manufacturing sector.
A shift away from the dollar to buy oil could also threaten its status as the world’s reserve currency. This could therefore alter the world’s power dynamics. It could also lead to the strengthening of other currencies, such as the euro, Chinese yuan, or a basket of currencies, depending on what alternatives are adopted. None of these are attractive options for the US.
So with many things in economics, there is the textbook response and reality. These two don’t always align.
One thing that I know is that whatever the impact is of this change in the petrodollar, any detrimental effects to the US or world economy won’t happen over night.
This will be a process that could take a while. Then again, sometimes things happen slowly and then suddenly. The trick is to be ready for the “suddenly”. Thanks for reading.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for entertainment and information purposes only..
July 11, 2024
Protectionism In The Global Economy: A Double-Edged Sword
To protect or not to protect? That’s the question. Let’s take a look at what could go wrong with protectionist policies implemented to help shield a nation from some of the effects of free trade. My last article dealt with manufacturing being the source of a nation’s wealth. In it, I touched on the idea of protectionism. If you missed that post, I’ll describe protectionism again.Investopedia defines protectionism as “Protectionism refers to government policies that restrict international trade to help domestic industries. Protectionist policies are usually implemented to improve economic activity within a domestic economy but can also be implemented for safety or quality concerns.”
With that, I wanted to highlight some of the negative aspects of protectionism. The point is to serve as counterarguments to those who think it might be a good idea. Often people get very emotional when they talk about outsourcing jobs and don’t think through the repercussions of what they are arguing about. Let’s look at some of them.
1. Higher Prices for Consumers:
Increased Costs: Protectionist policies often lead to higher prices for goods and services because consumers have fewer choices and may have to buy more expensive domestic products.
Inflation: Higher import costs can contribute to inflation, reducing consumers’ purchasing power.
2. Reduced Economic Efficiency:
Resource Misallocation: Protectionism can lead to resources being allocated inefficiently as industries that might not be competitive internationally receive artificial support.
Stifled Innovation: Without the pressure of foreign competition, domestic companies may have less incentive to innovate and improve efficiency.
3. Retaliation and Trade Wars:
Countermeasures: Other countries may retaliate with their own trade barriers, leading to a trade war that can harm global trade.
Economic Isolation: Countries heavily reliant on protectionism may find themselves isolated from the benefits of international trade.
4. Negative Impact on Exporters:
Reduced Market Access: Domestic exporters may face reduced access to international markets if other countries impose retaliatory tariffs.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Protectionist policies can disrupt global supply chains, making it harder and more expensive for domestic companies to access raw materials and components.
5. Economic Inefficiency:
Deadweight Loss: Protectionism can create a deadweight loss, where the overall economic welfare is reduced due to inefficient market outcomes.
Loss of Comparative Advantage: Protectionist policies can prevent countries from specializing in industries where they have a comparative advantage, reducing overall economic efficiency.
6. Impact on Developing Countries:
Growth Constraints: Protectionism in developed countries can hinder the economic growth of developing nations that rely on exports to those markets.
Increased Poverty: Reduced access to markets can limit job creation and economic opportunities in developing countries, exacerbating poverty.
7. Short-term Gains vs. Long-term Costs:
Temporary Relief: While protectionism may provide short-term relief for certain industries, it often leads to long-term economic costs and inefficiencies.
Distorted Incentives: Industries protected by tariffs and quotas may not invest in long-term improvements or competitiveness, relying instead on ongoing government support.
8. Political and Social Tensions:
Domestic Inequality: Protectionist policies can create winners and losers within the domestic economy, leading to increased inequality and social tension.
International Relations: Strained trade relations can lead to broader geopolitical tensions and conflicts.
9. Impact on Global Supply Chains:
Disruptions: Protectionism can disrupt global supply chains, leading to inefficiencies and increased costs for multinational businesses.
Reduced Innovation: Global supply chains foster innovation and efficiency; protectionism can hinder these benefits by isolating domestic industries.
While protectionism aims to shield domestic industries and preserve jobs, its negative aspects can outweigh the benefits. Higher consumer prices, reduced economic efficiency, retaliation, and negative impacts on international relations and developing countries highlight the potential downsides. A balanced approach that includes trade liberalization, combined with targeted measures to support affected workers and industries, often provides a more sustainable path for economic growth and development.
Okay, so now we have a counter-argument. Time will tell what path the US and other nations take. Although nobody can foretell the future, one thing is sure….it will be interesting.
Thanks for reading.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
macroark.com
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
June 27, 2024
Manufacturing Is Wealth - Part II
In case you wanted more proof that the key to a nation’s wealth is manufacturing read on. Now I want to continue on with my post about manufacturing being the true source of a nation’s wealth. If you didn’t read part I of this article, you might want to read “Manufacturing Equals Wealth — Part II” from June 5, 2024. So I left off part I talking about US manufacturing being offshored to low-cost countries as a result of free market capitalism. Now as mentioned previously, I am a proponent of free market capitalism however, I do in fact see a need to curb some of the offshoring.
For example, when a certain virus started making its way around the globe in 2020, it was quickly realized that N-95 masks were imported from China and supply in the US quickly began to run low on masks.
The good news is that they are easy to make and some US companies were able to pivot and ramp up production. But what about products that can’t be made quickly? Other products made offshore include pharmaceuticals, microchips, cars, trucks, medical equipment, turbo jets, computer parts, and accessories, phones, and many more. You get the gist of my point.
So what happens when the countries that make these products decide not to sell them to the US any longer? Or even if they want to but can’t due to their own domestic issues? And let’s not forget about run-of-the-mill supply chain risks such as pandemics, hurricanes, earthquakes, wars, the recent bridge collapse in Baltimore (after getting hit by a freighter), and my personal favorite…….a container ship getting stuck in the Suez Canal in 2021.
This is a small list compared to the myriad of things that can go wrong. So if any or some of these things impact the supply chain, then what do we do? For the most part we tough it out for a few days, weeks or months until the issue is resolved. But what happens if an event is longer than a few days or weeks? What happens if there is a war and international trade is shut down? If China decides to invade Taiwan and manages to do so successfully, the ramifications for any industry that uses microchips would be devastating.
This by itself could cripple the economy. But what if this example is coupled with a supply shock to pharmaceuticals or spare jet parts? Now things get really bad. Imagine not being able to get common items that we take for granted some of which are needed for a functioning society. What now? You just can’t flip the switch and expect the faucet to start flowing again within the US borders.
As mentioned in part I of this post, if enough time has passed, then the knowledge base to bring the manufacturing back to the home country is likely gone. And with that, the investment, increased employment, innovation, value add etc that will now never happen.
The ramifications of offshoring manufacturing are multifaceted, affecting economic, social, environmental, political, and technological dimensions across both originating and receiving countries.
With the introduction of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in the 1990’s which has been re-badged as USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement), the US, Canada, and Mexico embarked on a journey of free trade. With that, we all heard “that giant sucking sound” (to quote 1992 presidential hopeful, Ross Perot) of American manufacturing rapidly leaving the US for Mexico.
Now fast forward 33 years and guess what? You got it, manufacturing jobs have slowly been outsourced to Mexico in a slow trickle which has decimated more than just a few cities in the US. Many of these jobs are automotive jobs. Decades ago you could argue that the US automotive industry was the backbone of the US economy. Now it’s just a shell of its former self.
For some people, the answer to this however is protectionism which I’m not the biggest fan of but find myself rooting for. Investopedia defines protectionism as “Government policies that restrict international trade to help domestic industries. Protectionist policies are usually implemented with the goal of improving economic activity within a domestic economy but can also be implemented for safety or quality concerns.”
So is protectionism the answer? As a believer in free market capitalism the stock answer is no. There are just too many downsides to protectionism that have negative impacts on a nation’s economy. The key is to find creative ways to make products people will buy using local production at competitive pricess and keep the manufacturing knowledge train rolling.
Remember, killing manufacturing is akin to killing the goose that laid the golden egg. A nation does so at its own risk.
Thanks for reading.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This article is for information and entertainment only.
June 9, 2024
Manufacturing Is Wealth - Part I
Have you ever wondered what a nations’s true source of wealth is? In a recent post on X, Lyn Alden lamented that the decline in the number of people entering the manufacturing sector will lead to a long term decline in the knowledge base that is needed to produce tangible things such as cars.
I will say that I am in 100% agreement with her statement. The United States, although still a major manufacturing country has seen a decades long decline in its manufacturing prowess and this will only cause more problems for the US over the coming years and decades.
Okay, so why does this matter? Don’t we all want cheaper things that can be produced in lower cost countries? Of course we do. But have most people really thought about the repercussions of outsourcing the source of our national prosperity? I would say that is an emphatic no. If that were the case we would see an enormous groundswell of Americans clamoring for the return of manufacturing to our shores.
The concern is that manufacturing is not like other industries. Unlike industries like finance and accounting, it can’t be taught in the classroom and one simply can’t be brought up to speed quickly in manufacturing.
Knowledge of manufacturing and the nuances of the different types of manufacturing is learned through years and even decades of working in manufacturing plants. Manufacturing know how simply can’t be taught. In my opinion, the loss of this manufacturing “tribal knowledge” is an existential crisis for the United States.
Getting back to my first question — why does this matter? It matters since the true source of national wealth is manufacturing. Manufacturing is how you grow your economy. Finance and the other service industries can only do so much.
So how does manufacturing increase a nation’s wealth? Well, there a several reasons, some of which may be somewhat ancillary but even if so they nevertheless contribute to a nation’s economic strength. Let’s take a look.
Employment Generation: Manufacturing industries create jobs across various skill levels, from unskilled labor to highly specialized positions. This reduces unemployment and increases household incomes, leading to higher consumption and economic growth. Consumption then drives up aggregate demand for other goods (and yes services) and helps perpetuate economic growth.
Export Revenue: Manufactured products are often exported, which generates earnings for the domestic companies. The additional revenue can be invested in other sectors of the economy
Technological Advancements: Manufacturing drives technological innovation and development. As the saying goes “necessity is the mother of invention.” Investment in research and development (R&D) leads to new products and more efficient production processes. New products add to a company’s revenue stream (to a point). More efficient production enhances productivity and competitiveness.
Strengthens the Supply Chain: Manufacturing stimulates the development of related industries, such as suppliers of raw materials, transportation, packaging and logistics. This interconnectedness strengthens the overall economic structure.
Infrastructure Investment: The growth of the manufacturing sector often necessitates improvements in infrastructure, such as transportation networks, energy supply, and communication systems. These improvements benefit other sectors of the economy as well and add to increased employment.
Diversification: A strong manufacturing sector helps diversify the economy, reducing reliance on agriculture or extractive industries. This diversification makes the economy more resilient to sector-specific downturns.
Investment Attraction: Manufacturing can attract both domestic and foreign investment, as investors seek to capitalize on the production potential of a company and therefore it’s country. This influx of capital spurs further economic growth and development.
Innovation and Skills Development: The demands of manufacturing push for continual innovation and skills development among the workforce. This leads to a more educated and skilled labor force, which can contribute to overall economic growth. These are the skills that are gradually being outsourced to other countries.
Value Addition: Manufacturing transforms raw materials into finished goods with higher value. This value addition increases the overall economic output and contributes to GDP growth.
The list above may not be all inclusive and I’m sure you can make a case for other reasons but you should get the idea. To be direct, I don’t want to pick on the service industries but those simply don’t generate the impact on a nation’s economy the way manufacturing does. Think of the list above and try to correlate those impacts to the service industries.
No disrespect intended but the service industry tends to have lower wage jobs requiring little to no skills and virtually no investment. There simply is no comparison with the manufacturing sector regarding its economic impact.
The next question naturally is — why would a country outsource its manufacturing and therefore its wealth to other countries?
When I say other countries, it is assumed to mean low cost countries and I touched on this a little early on in this article. Companies do so so that they can sell more goods that are cheaper to produce and therefore sell more.If they can do this, they can either maintain pricing and increase profit margins or reduce prices to sell more and make more profit due to volume increases. Either of these add to the bottom line and therefore the stock price.
Funny but you don’t get any complaints from the consumers who benefit from the cheaper goods. But at the same time they likely don’t understand that the the source of their nations wealth has been shipped overseas. The fat cats who made those decisions only get fatter.
Meanwhile the people who actually did work in manufacturing and saw their jobs gets shipped abroad know only too well the the pain and suffering offshoring can cause.
Now as much as I want manufacturing to stay in the US and even begin to bring back manufacturing that now resides in low cost countries, I am admittedly somewhat of a hypocrite on the topic. I say that since I am a firm believer in the free market. I am all for free market capitalism and unfortunately part of that equation is letting the free market dictate price. This unfortunately allows for cheap imports and the cost of American jobs.
So what’s the answer? I’ll go dive into this more in part II of this article in the coming weeks.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial professional and am in no way qualified to offer investment advise. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
May 25, 2024
The Bitcoin Saga Continues
So here we are, 3 months after the Bitcoin ETF and 1 month after the Bitcoin halving and I’m not going to lie I’m but surprised and a little disappointed that the price as I write this is at $69,324. If you’re like me and follow Bitcoin, weren’t you thinking it would be pushing well past its all time high of $73,738 and closing in on $80,000 if not higher by now?
Dreams of BTC’s price rocketing to $100,000 and beyond occupying our crypto thoughts. That said, it’s been has had a phenomenal run since January 1, 2024 when it was at $44,167.
That translates to an almost 57% increase in just under five months. How spoiled are all of those HODLERS.
Well I guess we all got a little dose of reality when it jumped to just over $73,700 and then fell down below $60,000 but looking at the price objectively (to the extent that you can with a cryptocurrency).
I think it’s perhaps a good think that the pricing isn’t mooning just yet. I say this since large price swings are one of the knocks on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. People argue that without price stability, Bitcoin really can’t be considered money as it doesn’t hold up to the “store of value” criteria.
For example, how do you plan your finances when your unit of currency can fluctuate double digit percentage points in a week (or even a day). The wild price gyrations can make even simple purchases a challenge as you don’t know from one hour to the next how much money you have.
But this then begs the question, why isn’t the price of Bitcoin going through the roof? I continue to read about and listen to podcasts/YouTube videos about crypto and have repeatedly heard that major institutions are starting to buy en masse.
Certainly Michael Saylor and the gang at MicroStrategy have continued to accumulate Bitcoin and at this point show now signs of slowing down, especially given Michael Saylor’s firm belief in Bitcoin as the money of the future. MicroStrategy is in fact the largest corporate investor.
With the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, hedge funds and traditional investment houses are increasing their purchases. But then what about JP Morgan and its CEO Jamie Dimon? It’s a known fact that Jamie Dimon does not think highly of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general. In fact he went so far as to call Bitcoin a “pet rock” and “worthless”.
But how do you reconcile statements like this with the actions of JP Morgan. JPMorgan has not directly disclosed specific amounts of Bitcoin it has bought and perhaps it really doesn’t own any. However, the bank has been involved in the cryptocurrency market primarily through offering Bitcoin-related investment products and services.
Recently, JPMorgan launched an in-house Bitcoin fund for its private bank clients, marking its deeper involvement in the Bitcoin market.
Additionally, JPMorgan has been active in research and providing financial products related to Bitcoin, such as being involved in the Bitcoin ETF. As banks have been enabling Bitcoin investments for their clients the volume of institutional investors continues to increase which will certainly drive the price up.
The Bitcoin halving has also been a little under whelming thus far. A having happens every four years and this year’s halving was supposed to boost the price considerably. The halving reduces the block reward by 50% and lowers the supply of Bitcoin entering the market.
This ties back to the idea of scarcity and the fact that there are only 21,000,000 Bitcoin in existence. Granted, although the last one won’t be mined until approximately 2140, people will eventually catch onto the fact that it they don’t get in on this now, they could be doing their progeny a grave disservice.
Okay, so that logic checks out for the HODLRS but what about the people who are selling there Bitcoin? There are those who do sell and to their credit, if done properly, they have made a lot of money over the years if they bought the dips and sold as the price rose.
I’m purely speculating here but I have to assume as we approach 2140, the number of sellers will diminish yearly even as some people and institutions risk long term security for short term gain. I’ll qualify that statement by saying that the price could also stay in its current range forever or even go to zero. Nobody knows and I’m certainly not about to speculate on the price.
Regardless of where the price ends up, I do think that like gold, Bitcoin will serve as an inflation hedge and should the economy go into a recession, the price of Bitcoin will likely increase. If that ends up being the case, it’s certainly a hard way to see the price go up since nobody wants a recession. But as mentioned earlier the price should rise naturally with the organic increase in adoption.
And finally — if the current fiat system continues to underwhelm the masses, people might actually flock to an alternate banking system and perhaps ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 before 2030 might actually come true. Wouldn’t that be nice!
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for entertainment and information purposes only.
May 9, 2024
Macroeconomics - The Essential List of What to Know
Sometimes what people want to read is just a list. So for this article I’m going to go off script and onto a list. I thought that it might be convenient for readers to just be able to read a list of macroeconomic topics that I think everyone should have at least a general understanding of. Let’s face it — we all like to read lists.
Keep in mind that the premise of Macro Ark is to provide some insight on general macroeconomic topics to people who either don’t know much about the topic or flat out hate it. Remember the message I’m trying to hammer home:
If you have at least a general understanding of macroeconomics, you have a much better chance of making sound decisions that can or will impact your life for decades to come.
So what topics do I think you should have a basic understanding of? In no particular order here are my top 10. I’ve noted my posts titles and date.
Fractional Reserve Banking – “Fractional Reserve Banking” – December 4, 2023
Supply and Demand – “Supply and Demand” – October 4, 2023
The Money Supply – “The Velocity of Money and the Money Supply” – November 19, 2023
Fiat Currency – “Fiat Currency” – October 16, 2023
The Velocity of Money – “The Velocity of Money and the Money Supply” – November 19, 2023
Inflation – “Inflation – The Hidden Tax” – January 1, 2024
The Quantity Theory of Money – “The Velocity of Money and the Money Supply” – November 19, 2023
The Gold Standard – “Gold vs Bitcoin” – January 31, 2024
Interest Rates – “Interest Rates – To Lower or Not to Lower” – February 18, 2024
Bonds – “What Really Is a Bond?” – February 26, 2024
There are other topics that I think everyone should also have a cursory understanding so they get honorable mentions below.
BRICS Union – “Will the West Hit A Brics Wall?” – January 22, 2024
Crypto Currencies – “What is Cryptocurrency?” – October 29, 2023
Austrian Economics – “Austrian vs Keynesian Economics” – February 11, 2024
Bitcoin – “The Bitcoin ETF” – January 9, 2024
I realize that macroeconomics and its associated components can be boring and even intimidating to some but what I am hoping for is for readers to realize that it actually is interesting and the more they know the better off they will be in the long run.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for educational and information purposes only.
April 23, 2024
The Economy — It’s Never What You Think
If you are wondering why the economy isn’t behaving like the pundits have predicted, join the club and keep reading. So here we are in mid April 2024 and the economy seems to be just about where it was in January. Bitcoin has increased 50%, gold is up about 11% and the Dow Jones is about about 11%. So those metrics have changed which is all good news for investors but what about the much anticipated rate cuts and the drop off in inflation?
Although inflation came down in 2023 to 4% from the 2022 level of 8.3%, it did in fact creep up a bit in March to 3.5%. As a reminder, even though this is much better than 8.3% or even 4%, keep in mind that inflation is cumulative, so whatever the 12 month average ends up being for 2024, it just stacks on top of last year’s 4% which is stacked onto 2022’s 9%.
A decrease in inflation simply means the growth rate has slowed. That said, the much anticipated rate cuts that we all thought were coming (and I even wrote about in a previous post) have not yet materialized.
The Federal Reserve (i.e. Jerome Powell) is desperately trying to keep the inflation genie in the bottle and the March number didn’t help any. Powell is concerned about his legacy and seeing “re-inflation” will sideline his chances of being the Fed Chairman who tamed inflation in the post pandemic world. With that, there is still talk about a few rate cuts this year but I’m not sure those will materialize if inflation doesn’t come down.
But what else has not materialized? The much anticipated recession of course. I’m not complaining certainly but haven’t we all been waiting for the recession for the last two years? Technically, we really did enter inflation in Q3 2022 when it was announced that Q1 and Q2 both had negative growth thus meeting the definition.
For some odd reason, however, the powers that be were able to wave the magic wand and declare that it was not a recession. I’m not sure how that works but the country bought it and with the new definition of a recession, we seemed to have avoided an actual one.
What we are seeing is a rise in unemployment claims. An uptick in these claims has been long anticipated by those of us who can’t figure out how the economy is staying afloat. Employment is considered a “lagging indicator” because it is usually one of the last economic indicators that signals recession. Companies will hang onto employees until they absolutely have to lay people off.
This has been been the case over the decades but more so now as companies learned during the pandemic how hard it is to hire employees and are still having problems today with finding qualified candidates who want to work.
The point of this post is that even though macroeconomics tends to follow a template, nothing is guaranteed. The irony is that in macroeconomics patterns are supposed to be somewhat predictable and to an extent they are but this time around thing just seem different. This is why I will continue to stress the need to continue learning more about macroeconomics, banking, finance and the geopolitical situation in general.
Stay vigilant and keep an eye on all aspects of the economy. Don’t take anything for granted and take what you hear on legacy media or even independent media with a grain of salt.
You might want to read or re-read some of my earlier posts about the basics of macroeconomics. I’m not trying to be a fear monger — I’m just trying to win over converts to macroeconomics. The more you know and understand, the better prepared you will be to make knowledgeable decisions to potentially avoid catastrophe and capitalize on opportunities.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to provide financial advice. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
April 8, 2024
Not Sure What a Reserve Currency is? Read On….
Unsure what a reserve currency is? Or why it’s important for the US Dollar? Then read on – this article is for you.
There’s been a lot of talk lately about the fate of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In a recent post I talked about the BRICS nations and what impact they might have on the US Dollar. But if you aren’t a macroeconomics nerd like me you likely won’t know what a reserve currency is and why it is important for a nation’s financial system.
So what is a reserve currency? Investopedia defines a reserve currency as “A reserve currency is a large quantity of currency maintained by central banks and other major financial institutions to prepare for investments, transactions, and international debt obligations, or to influence their domestic exchange rate. A large percentage of commodities, such as gold and oil, are priced in the reserve currency, causing other countries to hold this currency to pay for these goods.”
Although there are many reserve currencies, including the Euro, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, Swiss Franc, British Pound Sterling and a handful of others, it is the US Dollar that is the primary global reserve currency. But why is this? And for how long has the US Dollar been king of the currencies?
The U.S. dollar became the world’s primary reserve currency following World War II, with the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944. The agreement established a fixed exchange rate system, with the value of other currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar, which was in turn pegged to gold. This system lasted until 1971 when President Richard Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system.
Despite this, the U.S. dollar retained its status as the dominant reserve currency due to the size and stability of the U.S. economy, as well as the continued use of the dollar in international trade and finance.
Because the U.S. dollar is considered the world’s primary reserve currency, it is held by central banks and other major financial institutions around the world as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Several factors contribute to the U.S. dollar’s status as the dominant reserve currency:
Economic Stability: The United States has one of the largest and most stable economies in the world, which enhances trust in the value of the U.S. dollar.
Market Liquidity: The U.S. dollar is widely accepted in global trade and financial transactions, making it highly liquid and easy to exchange.
Political and Military Stability: The U.S. government is seen as politically stable, and its military strength adds to the perception of security associated with holding U.S. dollars.
Historical Precedent: The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 established the U.S. dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, backed by gold at a fixed rate, though this gold standard was abandoned in 1971.
Currency Reserves: Many countries hold significant amounts of U.S. dollars as part of their foreign exchange reserves, further reinforcing its status.
Petrodollars: Oil is predominantly traded in U.S. dollars, which creates a constant global demand for the currency.
The last point above it worth discussing further. I mentioned petrodollars in a previous article and how China would like to create a petro-yuan to compete with it.
In the early 1970’s, the US convinced OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to only sell oil on the world market in US dollars. This was done in exchange for military aid and domestic investments. Since that time, any nation buying oil from the OPEC nations must do so in US Dollars which is how we get the term “petro dollar”.
Therefore, in order to buy the oil, a country must first purchase US Dollars. Well, it just so happens that dollars are easy to come by given the dollar’s reserve currency status. Funny how that works. Now we’ve got dollars all around the world propping up the US economy.
While the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency provides certain benefits, such as lower borrowing costs for the U.S. government and easier access to international markets for U.S. businesses, it also comes with challenges, such as the risk of the dollar losing value due to factors such as inflation or geopolitical developments.
The biggest risk however is if countries start selling oil in other currencies such as the Yuan or even their own currencies. China is certainly a candidate to buy oil in a currency other than petro dollars. If other countries begin doing so, most notably the BRICS nations, this would spell disaster for the US economy as all of those unused dollars come flooding home.
If you recall the just a few years ago when the stimulus checks were unleased on the US, inflation immediately spiked and we’ve been trying to contain it ever since. Consider the ramifications if trillions of dollars of former petro dollars come home to roost. Hello hyper inflation!
All reserve currencies come to an end so it is inevitable that the US Dollar’s reign will end too. The question is……when?
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for information and entertainment purposes only.
April 1, 2024
Shining Bright: The Timeless Allure of Gold and Silver
If you don’t know much about gold and silver, now might be a good time to learn.
Okay, so my last post was about the run up of the price of Bitcoin after the Bitcoin ETF approval, its subsequent leveling off and then the likelihood of it going to the moon. So it made sense to me to follow it up with a post about one of the oldest sources of wealth. If you’ve read this far, you obviously read the article title so you know that I am talking about — our dear old friends, gold and silver.
For some reason, gold and silver, as well as other precious metals, never really seem to get any mass mainstream credit for being viable investment options. For those who understand and see the value in gold and and silver however, investment in these metals is an easy choice.
So what is the allure of these timeless beauties? For one, they have both been around for thousands of years and used both for money, jewelry and increasingly nowadays for industrial uses. Gold has backed the US Dollar as well as other major global currencies during the good old days of sound money. Gold and silver both meet the criteria for money in that they can be used as:
- A store of value
- A unit of account
- A medium of exchange
This doesn’t mean that either would be viable options for displacing the US Dollar but over the centuries, both have been used as money. Gold clearly has been seen as having value by the US government since the US Dollar was once backed by gold when it was on the “gold standard”. During the 1930’s however, the US government made gold ownership illegal after President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102. Gold was confiscated and used to print more money to pay for government programs of the 1930’s to help get the US out of the depression. At that point the inflation genie was out of the bottle and we were put on the economic path we now find ourselves in. More on that topic in a future article.
Maybe mass adoption is just a function of poor marketing. If you’re passionate about macroeconomics like I am, the websites and newsletters I read contain advertisements for precious metals. The same with the podcasts and YouTube videos I watch since I watch and listen to a disproportionate number about gold and silver. But unless you’re seeking out this information, you typically won’t see any advertisements in your day to day life. With returns over the last decade that have been less than stellar, and a stock market that has boomed, the inclination of the average investor to invest in gold and or silver was has been pretty low.
That however is part of the problem. Ask any gold or silver bug and they’ll tell you that investments in gold and silver isn’t about getting big gains or even necessarily a steady return of single digit percent returns year over year.
Investment in silver and in particular gold is about wealth preservation.
The intent of investing in gold or silver is to not get wiped out if the stock market crashes and at the same time preserve purchasing power from being eroded via the hidden tax of inflation.
In uncertain times, gold and silver offer a certain amount of stability. You can buy them in either physical form such as coins or bars or through a gold or silver ETF (exchange traded funds).
You can also invest indirectly in precious metals by buying stock in mining companies. This is a more risky than buying the metals outright since you are still then buying stocks which are still subject to the same market gyrations as any other stocks. Nonetheless, the mining stocks are somewhat contrarian to the larger market in that they are thought to be somewhat ready for a run up in prices should the market take a dive and more investors do flock to precious metals for investments.
That and with the increase in demand for gold and silver (in particular silver) for EV car manufacturing the demand for the metals should increase significantly. Whether electric vehicles actually hit mass adoption is another question but in theory the demand for the metals will increase. The cost to mine 1 ounce of gold is around $1,000 so any market price above $1,000 is profit. With gold at $2,178 per ounce as I write this, the profit margin is pretty good for the miners. Time will tell if the rise in gold price does anything over the next few years for the stock prices of gold miners but there should be a correlation.
Another important aspect of owning gold or silver — and this is a huge one for me is that there is no “counter party risk.”
Investopedia defines counter party risk as “counter party risk is the likelihood or probability that one of those involved in a transaction might default on its contractual obligation. Counterparty risk can exist in credit, investment, and trading transactions.”
In a nutshell, what this mean to have no counter party risk is that you own the gold or silver outright and don’t have to worry about a company going bankrupt, a currency collapsing, a mortgage you can’t pay or any investment that has an opposite entry to your investment on the other side of a balance sheet.
Once you own physical gold or silver, you own it outright.
It can decline in value but will always have some intrinsic value that might come in handy if we run into some difficult economic times. It can be used for barter or sold. Not so with many other forms of investment. They can disappear in the blink of an eye. Something to think about in these uncertain times.
And there’s one more thing I’d like to point out……
Central banks in countries all around the world have been stockpiling gold over the last few years. The most notable of which is China. What do you think they might know? Hmmm……
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a financial advisor and am in no way qualified to offer financial advise. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
March 18, 2024
Are You Running With The Bulls?
It seems like crypto is off to the races. Is it time to load up or proceed with caution?
If you follow crypto currencies then you know by now that the much anticipated Bitcoin ETF was approved in January. And as thought would happen, the price of Bitcoin went on a tear and began dragging up the prices of the altcoins with it.
When I started writing this article, Bitcoin had hit a new all time high of $73,737. But as of today it has dropped back down to $67,938 when I last checked.
The roller coaster that is Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general continues. In January when the Bitcoin ETF was approved, it opened the floodgates of investors, many of whom I have to imagine are first time Bitcoin buyers.
Now people who either had a passing interest in Bitcoin or at the very least had a fear of missing out on a huge run have entered the buying frenzy en masse. The relative crash back to $67k is likely due to a drop of demand in buyers from the initial surge.
The big uptick in price and the pullback were somewhat expected as Bitcoin’s price is still not as stable as it will be once wider adoption takes place. That said, it seems like cryptocurrencies are at a bit of a cross roads now. Is this the start of the final run up before the Bitcoin halving and then to new all time highs on a regular basis? Or is it just another tease for those who so desperately want the crypto-verse to go to the moon but are consistently let down?
From my research and understanding of crypto currencies, coupled with what I know about the fiat world we all live in, I think that what we are witnessing is in fact the start of a longer run. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see a pullback into the $40k-$50K range before next month’s Bitcoin halving.
I would expect the price of Bitcoin to repeat the current pattern when the halving happens. A big run up followed be a large drop. The trend of alt coins is that they will do what they typically always do — mirror Bitcoins price swings. Looking at this objectively, with the increase interest of the Bitcoin ETF, coupled with the continued sputtering of our economy it would seem that the Bitcoin bulls might finally have their day.
Also, for those with even just a little knowledge of macro economics, you have see that our day of economic reckoning is waiting. This could be this year or many years in the future but either way, the continued debasing of our monetary system (i.e. expanding the money supply or “printing money”) will eventually catch up to us through some likely very bad economic event. This could be hyper inflation or some other black swan event but the road we’re on now seems to be heading toward a cliff.
That said, I’ve thought financial ruin was at hand since the 2008 financial crises and have been consistently proven wrong year after year. The powers that be have done a great job of keeping things together with all economic weapons at their disposal.
Crypto therefore seems like a likely refuge for those who are worried about the current fiat system. Or for that matter for anyone who just thinks they can make some quick cash — or even long term cash.
And now are we are looking at a possible Ethereum ETF. This one has been in the works for quite a while and at this point almost seem inevitable. Presumably the price of ETH would follow the same trend of Bitcoin before settling on a more stable price path.
So what to do now? If you’re not sold on crypto, you likely just see all crypto currencies as a form of high risk gambling. If you are a believer, then you recognize the world of opportunities blockchain technologies opens up and can see the prices of many of the coins and tokens that have actual valid use cases continue to rise.
Also, there is the fact that I’ve mentioned before that Bitcoin has a limited supply of only 21 millions coins. This limited supply ensures scarcity and thus the inability of a central back or anyone else for that matter of creating more, thereby debasing its value. Instead, the price should only increase over the coming years and decades.
As with anything that you invest in, there is risk. But with crypto currencies, and in particular Bitcoin, just a little risk could bring about huge rewards. Is it time to put on your running shoes or wait this one out for now?
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to provide financial advice. This article is for information and entertainment purposes only.
March 12, 2024
Read This If You Hate Economics
If you do, you just might have a change of heart…….
So you say you hate economics? When you hear the word economics, you might reflexively think back to your old Econ 101 class from college. If economics isn’t your thing, it’s easy to see how you might just associate it with confusing graphs, fuzzy terms and shear boredom. I get it.
But what I love about economics and more precisely, macroeconomics is how it relates to just about everything that goes on in the world. Investopedia defines macroeconomics as “a branch of economics that studies the behavior of an overall economy, which encompasses markets, businesses, consumers, and governments. Macroeconomics examines economy-wide phenomena such as inflation, price levels, rate of economic growth, national income, gross domestic product (GDP), and changes in unemployment.”
Macroeconomics is a complex web in the large scale economic landscape, where the focus is on the behavior and decision-making of entire economies, rather than individual markets or actors. Key elements include:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): This is a central element in macroeconomics, representing the total monetary value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period within a country’s borders.
- Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply: These curves represent the total demand and supply of all goods and services in an economy, showing the relationship between the price level and the quantity of goods and services demanded and supplied.
- Unemployment Rate: A key indicator of macroeconomic health, this measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
- Inflation Rate: Another crucial indicator, inflation measures the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, eroding purchasing power.
- Fiscal Policy: This involves government decisions regarding spending, taxation, and borrowing, aimed at influencing the economy.
- Monetary Policy: This is set by central banks and involves managing the money supply and interest rates to achieve macroeconomic objectives such as controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth.
- International Trade: Macroeconomics also considers the impact of trade on the economy, including exports, imports, and exchange rates.
- Business Cycles: These refer to the recurring patterns of expansion and contraction in economic activity that occur over time, known as booms and recessions.
- Economic Growth: Macroeconomics looks at factors that contribute to long-term economic growth, such as technological progress, investment in human capital, and institutional development.
Whether people realize it or not, economics is really just a word for the integration of politics, the banking system, international trade, the stock market, industry and individual consumers.
Historical events have shaped and have been shaped by economics and our daily lives cannot escape the long arm of macroeconomics. Think about the last four years years since we ran into that certain global health matter. When it began, we had the economy grind to a standstill coupled with a steep dive in the stock market.
These events triggered the onslaught of the stimulus money which found its way to millions of citizens and businesses in order to help stimulate the faltering US economy which for the most part has been in pretty decent shape over the last few years.
Since that time we’ve seen inflation soar, interest rates increase significantly, the stock market boom, supply chains constrained, labor markets tighten and now start to ease a bit.
It’s been a wild ride and all of the things just mentioned were factors into the economy and thus factors of macroeconomics. I understand how for most people this isn’t as exciting.
But have maybe it’s just that they just don’t understand how macroeconomics impacts the world and therefore your life and your future. If you can step back and look at both the global and US economy in terms of inflation, interest rate(s), employment rates and then overlay this information with things such as regional wars, social unrest, weather related events and all the other myriad of world and local events, you can start to pick up on trends that just might have short, medium and long term effects on your life.
A simple example is understanding that the economy is booming with high inflation. By understanding how the Federal Reserve uses interest rates to cool an economy, you might anticipate interest rate increases and move quickly to buy a house and lock in a lower mortgage rate. Understanding how inflation robs you of purchasing power might prompt you to invest cash into other assets that will hold their value or increase in value.
If you understand how economics has far reaching impacts on countries you might be able to see the rise of the BRICS nations as a threat to Western economic hegemony and make investment decisions based on your understanding of what economic impacts they might have on the US and therefore you personally.
And what about gold? Governments around the world are buying huge amounts of gold. Paying attention to this might make you wonder why this is happening and cause to you consider buying some gold or other precious metals as a hedge for what gold stock piling by central governments might mean to the rest of us.
So when you consider the far reaching implications of all the economic factors mentioned above and if you understand how changes in those factors impact your life and your future, wouldn’t you want to learn as much as possible about them?
Nobody can predict the future but remember that knowledge is power and economic knowledge just might help you make enough good decisions to positively impact your life and / or avoid disaster. The choice is yours.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for information and entertainment purposes only.
February 27, 2024
What Really Is A Bond?
You hear a lot about bonds, but do you really know what a bond is? If you have even a passing interest in economics, you hear about bonds on an almost daily basis but I would venture to guess that most people really don’t know what a bond is.
So what exactly is a bond?
Thebalancemoney.com defines bonds as “Bonds are essentially loans made to large organizations such as corporations, cities, and national governments. An individual bond is a piece of a massive loan. They are issued because the size of these entities requires them to borrow money from more than one source.”
In other words, if a government or company wants to raise money it can issues bonds which are essentially IOU’s that get paid back with interest.
The benefit to the individual is that they get a low risk investment with a guaranteed interest payment. They serve as a counter balance to higher risk investments such as stocks so are typically found in conservative or balanced portfolios. The loaning entity gets cash in hand to use over an agreed upon amount of time.
Some types of bonds are:
Municipal Bonds:
Municipal bonds (sometimes referred to as munis) are issued by state and local governments to pay for public projects. Some examples would be roads, schools, utilities etc. Municipal bonds can be exempt from Federal and State taxes depending on different conditions. It is important to point out that there are two types of municipal bonds:
General obligation bonds are backed by the credit of the issuer which means that the issuer has the authority to raise taxes to cover bond payments if necessary.
Revenue bonds are backed by the revenue generated by a specific project or source, such as tolls from a bridge or fees from a water utility. In other words, if bonds are issued to the public to pay for a toll road, the tolls are then used to back the return payments to the bond holders. Seems simple enough.
Municipal bonds are generally considered to be low risk however they are not completely risk free. The risk would be the default of the issuer if they are unable to make the interest or principle payments. This would likely be caused by a bankruptcy or other financial distress.
Treasury Bonds:
Treasury bonds are referred to as T-Bills and are issued (in the US) by the Treasury in order to finance the government’s spending. They are considered to be very secure since they are backed by the US government.
They have a fixed rate of interest that pays out every six months. Treasury bonds are bought and sold through financial institutions and brokers. They can also be purchased directly from the U.S. Treasury online at TreasuryDirect.com.
Corporate bonds:
Corporate bonds are debt securities issued by corporations to raise capital. When you buy a corporate bond you are loaning the company money in return for periodic interest payments and the face value when the bond matures.
Corporate bonds are issued in a variety of forms, including investment-grade bonds, which are issued by financially stable companies with a low risk of default. Another type of corporate bonds are high-yield bonds, also known as “junk bonds,” which are issued by companies with a higher risk of default as they are typically financially unstable which is why they need to raise capital. They are higher yield to compensate for the risk that the investor takes on. Sometimes, startup companies can issue bonds as a way to raise capital but would be considered junk bonds if deemed too risky.
Bond funds:
Bond funds are a type of mutual funds that invest primarily in bonds and debt securities. Bond funds are a collection of money from many investors that buy a diversified portfolio of bonds that can be a mix of corporate bonds, municipal bonds and other debt instruments.
The advantage of bond funds is that they offer investors diversification of bond types, professional management, and liquidity. By liquidity I mean that they can be bought or sold any time and you are not bound by the terms of actual bonds. In essence, you get all of the benefits of an equity mutual fund. Bond funds can be bought through retail institutions or in a 401(k).
Another important thing to know about bonds is the effects of interest rates and inflation on the bond market. With all that is going on in the world today with inflation and high interest rates, it seems like a good thing to know about. That said, it also sounds like something I will write about in another post.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for information and entertainment purposes only.
Copyright 2024
February 19, 2024
Interest Rates - To Lower or Not To Lower?
Inflation was down last year vs 2022. What move does the Federal Reserve make next?
Here we are in mid-February 2024 and the question on many peoples’ minds is “When will Powell begin lowering interest rates?” Now to be clear, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve can only raise or lower 1 interest rate. That rate is the Fed Funds Rate, which is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve charges member banks. Banks in turn then charge their rates for loans based on the Fed Funds Rate.
The intent of raising rates is to shrink the economy and thereby bring down inflation. With the Federal Reserve raising the Federal Funds Rate (i.e. tightening credit, quantitative tightening) the effects on the US economy were swift and for many people painful. We immediately saw the impact on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards and anything else requiring loans.
Although the higher interest rates coupled with historically high housing made home ownership prohibitive for some prospective homeowners, the rise in rates in many of the hot markets in the US did not slow housing sales as it did in other parts of the country. So what is the current state of inflation in the US?
According to the website “USInflationCalculator.com” the inflation rate in the US in 2023 was 3.4% with an average of 4.1%. The average was down almost 4% from the 8% average in 2022. Although the Federal Reserve target inflation rate is 2% and we are not there yet, it appears that the Fed did it’s job or at the very least is on track to do so.
So now what? From the news sources I pay attention to, market is anticipating a rate cut by the Fed. A rate cut would undoubtedly trigger a stock market rally and a large infusion of cash that’s been sitting on the sidelines for the past two years. If it comes, it will be in the spring at the earliest. Jerome Powell is of course watching to see how inflation in the coming months turn out.
January inflation came in at 3.1%. If he senses the economy is starting to weaken he will likely reduce the Fed Funds Rate so as to kickstart the economy. The quandary that Powell is in is if he reduces the Funds Rate too soon or too much he risks bringing back the inflation that we faced two years ago or possibly higher inflation. No doubt he is thinking about his legacy and would rather be remembered like Paul Volcker rather than Arthur Burns both of whom served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve but with much different results when it came to taming inflation.
Another question is that if the interest rate reduction-a-ton begins, how many rate cuts will there be? Is the intention to bring the Funds Rate down to pre-pandemic levels or take a more measured approached and work toward say 2–3%? Then what happens if inflation spikes again? Does he start the process of raising again? At this point, the ghost of Arthur Burns would haunt him every day. In summary, the market is anxiously awaiting a rate cut that might not come for a while.
Although we would all like to see some sort of a reduction, markets continue to trend higher regardless. This is great news for anyone who owns stocks and mutual funds, however this just continues to increase the wealth gap in society.
The people who can afford it the least are the ones most negatively impacted by high inflation on one hand and high interest rates on the other. And history has shown us repeatedly that when the wealth gap widens to a certain point, it never ends well for anyone…….
Until Next Time
Macro Ark
copyright 2024
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advise. This post is for information and entertainment purposes only.
February 12, 2024
Austrian vs Keynesian Economics
I Initially wanted to make this post strictly about Austrian economics. Then when I started writing I felt that I couldn’t write about Austrian economics without first giving readers a very brief background of Keynesian economics so as to have a reference point to compare with.
While doing so I realized that the best way to initiate thought about Austrian economics was to highlight the basic ideas of the two economic philosophies. That said, sometime down the road I do plan on a deeper dive into Austrian economics. Most people who have any interest in or have had exposure to economics typically think Keynesian economics whether they realize it or not.
Colleges throughout the US teach Keynesian economics since it has been the primary focus of economic policy since……well, since Keynes.
I studied Economics in college during the 1980’s and Keynes was made out to be somewhat of an economic god if not at the least a legend. His theories seemed to be the basis of all the lectures I sat through. So before I start down this road, it’s helpful to understand what Keynesian economics is and its role in modern economics.
It is named after John Maynard Keynes (born 1883 — died 1946). John Maynard Keynes was an English economist whose theory on economics became popular during the great depression. He theories became so widely adopted, they become know as “Keynesian Economics.” There are several tenets of Keynesian Economics but the central one in my opinion is the role that the federal government plays in economic policy. Keynesian adherents argue that government intervention is required during times of economic turmoil.
During the Great Depression, Keynes espoused that federal governments cut tax and increase spending to stimulate the economy. Tax cuts were designed to encourage personal and corporate spending. Government spending on projects that were part of the New Deal such as The Civilian Conservation Corps would supply jobs to millions of of Americans and thus stimulate economic activity in the US. When the US entered WWII, the depression ended but after the war the government continued to employ monetary and fiscal policies as standard practice.
The idea was to effectively control the economy by minimizing or even eliminating economic downturns and essentially controlling the cyclical nature of the economy. This might sound good but business cycles are an important part of any economy. Although downturns can be painful and costly, they are needed to wash away the economic deadwood and make room for new growth.
By economic deadwood I am referring to companies that shouldn’t be in business as they make no profits, have unsustainable business models or are otherwise “Zombie Companies.” Looking back to the financial crisis of 2008, following are some of the government policies that were enacted since that time:
- Quantitative easing that began during the crisis
- Banks and automakers were were bailed out by the US government
- Stimulus checks issued to businesses and private citizens during the global event of 2020
- ZIRP (Zero Interest-Rate Policies)
It’s easy to see a continued pattern of a government that does not want the business cycle to run it’s course.
No doubt that politics plays a large part in this as both major parties have been proponents of said government policies so as to curry favor with the American people and win votes. Although government intervention has been the norm since WWII, the time since the 2008 financial crisis that these policies/programs have been employed has exacerbated the financial situation the US now finds itself it.
Although the stock market is at record highs and unemployment remains low, the injection of so much money into the economy has caused inflation to soar as the average American is seeing their paycheck stretched further and further. Although it seems that inflation is somewhat lessened as of February 2024, keep in mind that this only means that the rate of increase has declined. Whatever inflation ends up being in 2024 is simply stacked onto the prices of the last three years as inflation is cumulative. There are some exceptions of course but this is the general trend.
Many economists will say that the US economy remains strong and there is no threat of recession this year. Others however are not so optimistic and insist that the 16 year financial party will soon end with millions of Americans and business left with huge financial hangovers. Time will tell but even if the party doesn’t end in 2024, the day of reckoning is out there. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve himself, Jerome Powell basically said so in a recent TV interview. We are burdening future generations with financial issues of unknown proportions but the era of US unlimited prosperity appears to be coming to an end.
Contrast the Keynesian school with Austrian economics. Austrian economics is, if not the opposite of Keynesian economics very different. Austrian economics emphasizes the human or individual side of capitalism more than the government side. Individual actions, entrepreneurship and market processes are the building blocks of economic outcomes.
Austrian economics originated in Austria in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Notable economists included Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, and Friedrich Hayek. Their work and philosophies fell out of favor with the advent of Keynesian policies, however it was brought back into some conversation during the 1970’s when Keynesian policies failed to rein in economic malaise of the 70’s. More recently, over the last few years I am reading more about Austrian economics and seeing more podcasts/Youtube videos about it that tells me there seems to be a bit of an awakening to this school of thought. Austrian economics is characterized by several general ideas:
Individualism:
I would say the primary tenet of Austrian economics is the idea of individual human action. The thought is that all economic phenomena arise from the actions and decisions of individuals who act purposefully to achieve their goals. This focus on methodological individualism sets Austrian economics apart from Keynesian economics that relies more on aggregate analysis.
Subjective Value Theory:
Austrian economics also has a subjective theory of value. This means that the value of goods and services is determined subjectively by individuals based on their preferences, needs, and circumstances.
Spontaneous Order:
Spontaneous order is a concept that describes the emergence of complex, organized systems without central planning or intentional design. It suggests that order can arise naturally from the interactions of individuals pursuing their own interests, even in the absence of a controlling authority such as a federal government or central bank.
Entrepreneurship and Innovation:
Austrian economics recognizes the critical role of entrepreneurship in driving economic progress and innovation. Entrepreneurs identify opportunities for profit by anticipating changes in consumer preferences, technological advancements, or market conditions. They play a crucial role in allocating resources efficiently and fostering economic growth. This hands off philosophy aligns with free market capitalism and more of a libertarian mindset.
Time and Capital:
Austrian economics places particular emphasis on the role of time and capital in economic analysis. It highlights the importance of capital accumulation, investment, and the structure of production in determining long-term economic growth and prosperity. Austrian economists have made significant contributions to understanding the business cycle and the effects of monetary policy on the economy.
Skepticism of Central Planning and Interventionism:
Austrian economics is generally skeptical of government intervention in the economy, particularly central planning and discretionary monetary policy. It argues that such interventions often lead to unintended consequences, distortions in market signals, and inefficiencies. Instead, Austrian economists advocate for free markets, property rights, and limited government interference. This skepticism is warranted nowadays as we see the effects of policies and programs such as quantitative easing, unrealistically low interest rates and indiscriminately handing out stimulus checks.
Heterodoxy:
Austrian economics is characterized by heterodoxy, meaning it does not adhere strictly to the mathematical and empirical methods commonly used in mainstream economics. Instead, it emphasizes reasoning, logical deduction, and thought experiments to analyze economic data.
With that I would say that my preference is decidedly for Austrian economics. Letting the free market dictate the economy with minimal interference from external entities is the answer to many of our current and now likely systemic economic woes. As with most things, only time will tell if the Austrian school will continue to gain adherents that make their way into positions of influence and power. One can only hope.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
copyright 2024
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for information and entertainment purposes only.
February 1, 2024
Gold vs Bitcoin
Well the Bitcoin ETF was approved a day after my post about a possible Bitcoin ETF. I think that a Bitcoin ETF will be good for Bitcoin and for the general public as well. But with all things financial, there is no guarantee about prices going up or down and if so what time horizons one can expect for price targets. That said I do believe Bitcoin will continue to go up over time even though it has taken a little bit of a beating after its post ETF approval price spike. After jumping to almost $49,000 it has since fallen to $42,399 as of this writing. This price activity doesn’t surprise. I’ve seen this movie many times throughout my life with IPO’s (initial price offering) of publicly traded stocks. The price of Bitcoin seems to have leveled off and hopefully will soon get some traction and begin a steady climb.
So with the ETF, Bitcoin will likely get much more attention from Mainstreet America and certainly more from Mainstream Media. That will inevitably lead to further debate about which investment is better. So now the question is…..which investment is better, Bitcoin or gold?
I spend a great deal of time reading about and listening to podcasts/youtube videos of macro economics and cryptocurrencies and there seems to be a great many people who are either in the Bitcoin camp or the gold camp. With that, let’s take a look at the similarities and differences of each. For thousands of years gold has met the 3 functions of money. It is a store of value, it is a unit of account and it is a unit of exchange. Let’s take a closer look at these three functions.
Store of Value: It can be saved, stores and exchanged over time. ****It retains its purchasing power over time. Characteristics include:
- Preservation of value
- Durability
- Divisibility
- Portability
- Easily Recognized
- Liquidity
Unit of Account: Refers to its role as a standard measure for expressing the value of goods, services, assets, or liabilities within an economy. Some aspects include:
- Standardized Measurement
- Consistency and Comparability
- Financial Reporting
- Contract and Agreements
- Economic Planning
Medium of Exchange: refers to its role as an intermediary in transactions, facilitating the buying and selling of goods and services. Key aspects include:
- Facilitating Transactions
- Widely Accepted
- Easily Transferable
- Overcoming Limitations of Barter
- Enhancing Economic Efficiency
Clearly gold has stood the test of time when it comes to these functions. It would seem that most ancient civilizations used gold as money up to and including the modern West. Although not used for daily transactions in the West for hundreds of years, it has been “used” in that it backed the local currencies. Thus the term “gold standard”.
Gold is also considered “hard money”. In his book “The Bitcoin Standard”, Saifedean Ammous says that “money whose supply is hard to increase in known as hard money, while easy money is money whose supply is amendable to large increases.” He then goes on to note that the stock to flow ratio for gold is high, therefore putting it in the hard money camp. Stock to flow refers to the current supply (net stock) to additional supply that will be made in a given time period. If the ratio is high then the money is more likely to retain its value. If you think about it, it makes sense that money that is not easily produced relative to its current supply would naturally have a higher value than money that can be easily produced.
Think of this in terms of think fiat currency. (see my post from October 16, 2023) Fiat currency is easy to produce and thus easily devalued. Recall the stimulus checks that flooded the US economy in 2020 and 2021. This injection of so many dollars into the money supply contributed to a significant portion of the current wave of inflation we are seeing.
Gold is not easy to produce since it has to be mined. Aside from mining being a difficult and slow process, gold has a break even cost of about $1,000 per ounce which also serves as a barrier to entry for would be gold miners. Gold also has additional use cases aside that of coins/bullion. We know it’s used for jewelry but what some people don’t know is the industrial uses of gold from electronics to aerospace to automotive and other industrial uses. It may come as a surprise to some but it is also still used in Dentistry.
Okay, so gold is tried and true for a variety of reasons. So now what about Bitcoin? Some people would argue that it does meet the 3 functions of money. I would tend to agree with that but admit that given its relatively short lifespan to date its safe to say it really hasn’t been tested. From a store of value standpoint, the anti-Bitcoin camp will tell you that the extreme price volatility diminishes its chances of being considered a store of value. It does easily qualify as hard money however since it is not easy to produce and there is a limited number of Bitcoin with a supply of 21 million coins. It is portable in that if you have access to a computer and the internet you have your Bitcoin. Gold is portable but it can be cumbersome to do so. Trying to transport large quantities of gold isn’t practical and leaves room for theft or misplacing it.
With Bitcoin, you run the risk of forgetting your password and seed phrase so as to lose your Bitcoin forever. The anti-Bitcoin camp will tell you that a power outage will immediately cut you off from your Bitcoin which isn’t a problem for a short amount of time but could be a big problem over a prolonged period.
Looking again at gold, it could in theory be confiscated by the US government again as it was with Executive Order 6102 which made owning gold coins and bullion illegal. Could this happen again should the US find itself in some sort of financial crisis? I would say since there is historical precedent the answer is yes. What about Bitcoin? Could the US government confiscate Bitcoin? It’s possible but certainly would be harder to do. Perhaps just outlawing the use of Bitcoin would be a workaround for confiscation.
So which is better for an investment? There are arguments for both gold and Bitcoin. For me, I believe that each offers unique investment opportunities. Gold primarily as a hedge against inflation (wealth protection) and Bitcoin as a long term investment for growth. Time will tell if Bitcoin will stand up as well as gold has over the millennia but at this time it almost seems as though it will.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to provide financial advice. This post is for informational purposes only.
January 26, 2024
Will The West Hit A BRICS Wall?
If you pay any attention to Macro Economics you have likely heard the term BRICS. The acronym, which was coined in 2001 was originally called BRIC and referred to Brazil, Russia, India and China. In 2010, South Africa was added and the acronym became BRICS.
Although not technically a trading block like USMCA (formerly NAFTA), the EU or ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations), the BRICS were intended to act in a spirit of economic cooperation and address economic challenges, trade and financial cooperation.
Originally, the BRIC nations were seen as being 4 burgeoning economies that had so much potential that they were seen as being ripe for investment and would help re-shape the global economic system. As the BRICS nations economies grew, it was thought that demand for goods and services would soar and would represent a win/win for everyone.
The original BRICS represented approximately, 25% of the global economy and 40% of the world’s population. Given these statistics, they have challenges regarding diverse economic structures, geopolitical differences, and varying levels of development. In recent years however, the BRICS are now being talked about in the West more and more and not necessarily for good reasons.
What we’ve seen in recent years are more countries joining the BRICS with the intention of challenging western economies and specifically the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
With the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 the US immediately took a lead role in the global financial system and the US Dollar became the new world reserve currency replacing the British Pound Sterling. To be sure, there are many reserve currencies but the US Dollar is the most dominant accounting for 58% of foreign exchange reserves in 2022.
The concern for the Western nations at this time however isn’t the BRICS themselves but the forty plus nations that have expressed interest in joining the BRICS. As of January 2024, five additional nations became part of the BRICS. Those five are Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. With these additional member and a significant number still looking to join, the West will face a significant challenge to global economic dominance. Nations are seeking to join the BRICS as they see it as an alternative to the current global order which they are increasingly dissatisfied with.
With that, we know that China is increasingly exerting its influence around the world and with the addition of five new members China will see the BRICS as a way to lever it’s economic and political influence. By now it’s no secret that China would like to replace the US Dollar as the primary world reserve currency with the Yuan. The Yuan would be backed by gold which likely explains China’s buying large quantities of gold in recent years. Although there is no telling how much gold China actually has there is speculation that China owns more gold than the US. Other nation are also buying large quantities of gold so perhaps the BRICS will launch a new currency other than a gold backed Yuan much like the EU did with the Euro.
Another potential play that has been talked about is establishing the Petro Yuan to compete with if not replace the Petro Dollar. Having a Petro Yuan to buy oil on the world market would undoubtedly cause economic and geopolitical implications for the United States. This would lead to reduced demand for the US dollar, thus weakening the dollar and impacting global trade. This would also lead to rising inflation as reduced demand for US Dollars caused those dollars to coming flooding home. This is a topic that I could write about at length but won’t go deeper into at this point.
As 2024 unfolds with wars and rumors of wars, the global geopolitical landscape appears ripe for continued challenges to the established world order.
It is hard to believe that the BRICS would not be a significant source of these challenges and will continue to flex its economic and political muscles. I firmly believe that the BRICS start to exert its influence on the world stage. Is it really just a matter of how soon and how hard? My question however is…….Is the West ready for such a challenge?
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
macroark.com
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advise.
January 8, 2024
Bitcoin ETF
Anyone with even a slight interest in cryptocurrencies and probably most people who pay attention to the current state of the economy have heard a lot lately about a pending Bitcoin ETF. If you are reading this article you likely know what Bitcoin is at this point but many people may not know what an EFT is. ETF stands for Exchange Traded Funds. So what is an Exchange Traded Fund? Investopedia defines an ETF as “a type of pooled investment security that operates much like a mutual fund. Typically, ETFs will track a particular index, sector, commodity, or other assets, but unlike mutual funds, ETFs can be purchased or sold on a stock exchange the same way that a regular stock can. An ETF can be structured to track anything from the price of an individual commodity to a large and diverse collection of securities. ETFs can even be structured to track specific investment strategies.
Seems simple enough. So what does this mean for Bitcoin as well as the people who will buy Bitcoin either as an ETF or direct purchase of the coins? I am speculating but I would think that the majority of people who have been buying Bitcoin on crypto exchanges will continue to do so. At this point they are likely comfortable with the process, well versed in how to transfer the coins to cold storage wallets and like the idea of knowing that they have direct and immediate control of their coins.
But what about those who are interested in Bitcoin but either or too intimidated to learn how to acquire the coins or even possibly too lazy? The ETF provides the answer as it would provide institutional and retails investors access to Bitcoin without have to have actual custody of the coins.
A Bitcoin ETF has been in the works for 10 years but is only now at a point where it is seemingly ready to be approved by the SEC. There’s been a great deal of talk the last year about the Bitcoin ETF to the point where many probably feel it is an inevitability.
The SEC however hasn’t made a determination yet but it is thought if they did approve the ETF it would be in January. The market has seemingly already priced in an approval but as I found over the years, sometimes just when you think something is a slam dunk, it doesn’t happen. Not getting approval could possibly send the price down significantly but even if it’s not approved in early 2024 that doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen.
Let’s say it does get approved though. There are some big name institution that are waiting for the approval so that they can offer the ETF to investors. How much money is on the sidelines waiting to be invested is not known and I can only speculate but enough to help drive the price of Bitcoin significantly.
Keep in mind that there is a finite supply of Bitcoin of 21 million coins. The finite supply therefore creates scarcity which should, over time drive up the price especially as fewer coins are available. With an ETF, it’s not out of the question that people might soon have the ability to buy Bitcoin through their 401(k). This would be a game changer if given the ability to dollar cost average into your retirement account with every paycheck. One thing that an Bitcoin ETF could help with is the wild price volatility. It’s thought that once John Q. Public has access to Bitcoin through financial institutions, the wild price swings will smooth out as the price climbs high. Although this is a good thing, it will likely spell the end of future massive bull runs with large price increases.
This then begs the question, what other coin might be a candidate for an ETF? Well there is already talk about an Ethereum ETF which would be interesting as well. Perhaps if one or both of these events takes place, the world of cryptocurrencies will be forever married to our financial system. At that point the crypto genie which is in my opinion already out of the bottle will become mainstream.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for entertainment and information purposes only.
January 4, 2024
Inflation – The Hidden Tax
By now, any adult in America who pays attention has seen the effects of inflation that started to rear its ugly head in 2021. When you hear the word inflation, most people think of a rise in the costs of goods and services in an economy which therefore erodes purchasing power. Investopedia says that “ Inflation occurs when the money supply of a country grows more rapidly than the economic output of a country.” I’ll add that the economic output can be stated as the aggregate of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. So what does this mean to you and me? What it’s saying is that an increase in the money supply is the real cause of inflation.
If you are reading this article you are most likely familiar with the term “printing money”. When the Federal Reserve buys back short term securities from banks, dollars are injected into the economy which is wVhat people are referring to when they say “printing money’. Regardless of what you want to call it, the net effect is that when you have large injections of money into an economy, prices go up. Most people either don’t understand this or don’t want to understand this. In this case, I’m referring to the somewhat recent round of stimulus that was enacted in the wake of a certain global issue in an attempt to stimulate the economy after the economic slow down. Note that an increase in the money supply isn’t the only true driver of inflation but in my opinion it has the biggest impact. That said, an injection of liquidity into the money supply has a significant impact in the prices of goods and services. Two often talked about types of inflation are:
Cost Push Inflation: This type of inflation is caused by an increase in the cost of goods and services due to higher production costs (i.e. labor, materials, logistics etc.). Too much money injected into the money supply causes the production costs to rise and therefore an increase in prices to consumers.
Demand-Pull Inflation: This type of inflation happens when the demand for goods and services exceeds their supply. For example, with an increase in the money supply due to handing out stimulus checks, most people immediately spent the money. With more money chasing less goods and services, the result was an increase in the prices of those same goods and services.
We can then see that with either cost push or demand pull inflation the increase in the money supply drives up either demand or production costs, both of which lead to higher prices. So how does this impact us as consumers? As you know by now the rise in prices is immediate and oftentimes has enormous ramifications for those on the bottom rungs of the economic latter. Although we all pay the same prices at the gas pump, grocery store etc, the additional costs on lower income families and individuals can be devastating. Inflation then really becomes a hidden tax. Although not an actual tax as we know it, it has the same net result. It robs all people of purchasing power.
Although nobody likes the effects of inflation, the poor cannot absorb the prices increases and oftentimes have to choose between paying one bill vs another. This also drives some people to look for second or even third jobs in order to make ends meet. The other issue with inflation is that it can actually help those on the higher economic rungs in that the higher prices drive up the costs of things that people in the middle and upper classes own such as homes, stocks, precious metals, art etc. This therefore leads to more income inequality as “the rich get richer”. Although I’m talking in general terms this is typically the result.
When faced with high inflation, policy makers will oftentimes raise interest rates so as to cool down economic activity in the hope of causing prices to fall. For example, if the Federal Reserve raises the interest rate, the cost of borrowing money (i.e. getting a loan for a car or house) becomes more expensive since the monthly payment increases. This then will limit the number of people applying for those loans. With less demand or cars and houses, the prices in theory will fall. This isn’t always the case such as housing prices in hot markets but over time and on average, the higher rates will slow the demand for homes or other items purchased with loans. As the adage goes “the cure for higher prices is more higher prices”, meaning that the more expensive things get, the less inclined people are to pay for them. This isn’t always the case however as with inelastic goods which I wrote about in my post on Supply and Demand from 10/4/23.
Another issue with inflation is that it can “inflate away” debt in real terms, meaning that the real value of debt decreases over time due to the erosion of purchasing power caused by rising prices. For example, there are two kinds of debt:
- Nominal Debt: The actual dollar amount of debt that a borrower owes.
- Real Debt: Inflation-adjusted value of debt which represents its purchasing power.
We know that with inflation, the general level of prices in the economy rises over time. With that, the nominal value of debt remains fixed. However, the real value of debt decreases because the same amount of money can buy fewer goods and services.
For example, if you borrow $100,000 at a fixed interest rate, over time with inflation of say 3% per year, the prices of goods and services will increase by 3%. After one year, the value of any goods and services that could initially be bought now costs $103,000 due to the inflation. While your nominal debt is still $100,000, the real value of that debt has decreased because it can now purchase less in terms of goods and services.
Inflation in a way then redistributes wealth since debtors benefit because they repay their loans with money that is worth less than when they borrowed. Creditors, on the other hand, experience a decrease in the real value of the money they receive. While inflation may help debtors, it can have negative consequences for savers and investors, as the real value of savings and fixed-income investments is eroded.
It’s important to note that the relationship between inflation and debt is complex, and the extent to which inflation erodes debt depends on various factors, including the inflation rate, expectations, and the terms of the debt agreement. Moderate and predictable inflation may provide some benefits for debtors, but high or unpredictable inflation can create economic uncertainty and pose challenges for both borrowers and lenders. Additionally, not all types of debt are equally affected by inflation, as the terms and conditions of debt agreements vary.
So how do we measure inflation? Two ways that inflation is measured are through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measure average changes in prices of goods and services over time and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which measure the average change of selling prices that domestic producers charge. You might hear about these two indices on the news or read about them online.
Understanding inflation is crucial for policymakers, businesses, investors, and consumers as it affects various aspects of the economy. Time will tell how are current battle with inflation plays out. USinflationcalculator.com states that for 2023, “the annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.1% for the 12 months ended November”. If the Federal Reserve feels that the inflation rate will drop further in 2024, there is speculation of interest rate cuts. This would be done with the intention of providing economic relief to consumers and spur the economy. What 2024 hold is anyone’s guess but I’m sure whatever plays out will be the source of much discussion either good or bad.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and am in no way qualified to provide financial assistance. This post is for information and entertainment purposes only.
December 21, 2023
Is This The Next Cryptocurrency Bull Run?
A crypto bull run refers to a period of time when the prices of cryptocurrencies increase significantly, similar to a bull run in the stock market. This is often driven by a surge in investor sentiment and market momentum. During a bull run, many investors, both seasoned and new enter the market in the hope of making substantial profits. Despite the potential for high returns, a crypto bull run also carries significant risks due to the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets. Therefore, investors are advised to do thorough research and exercise caution when investing during these periods.
Part of what could be causing the recent runup of cryptocurrencies is the coming Bitcoin halving. Approximately every four years, there is an event in Bitcoin known as the halving. It is done to control the supply. The purpose is to intentionally create scarcity such as we see with precious metals. The event is called a halving because the Bitcoin reward that miners get for validating a transaction is reduced by half. This therefore reduces the rate that new coins are created. If more coins are purchased we then see a reduced amount available to buy. Remember, the total number of Bitcoin is 21,000,000. The network will reach that number of coins by approximately 2140 so there still time to load up but in theory at much higher prices year over year as more scarcity is created.
So now we find ourselves at the cusp of what many believe is the next bull run. The halving likely has something to due with the large runup of Bitcoin in 2023 of over 100% as people buy more Bitcoin in the hopes of catching a surge in price at the halving. Talk of eminent recession no doubt has people who believe in Bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies buying more coins and tokens as a hedge against the fiat system. Then of course are the people afflicted with the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). FOMO in cryptocurrencies or the stock market is very common and with a surge if buying, it oftentimes bolsters prices by creating to a certain degree the Pygmalion effect.
With the increase in Bitcoin price, alt coins (short for alternative) typically get pulled along since the crypto world can find itself in a bit of a mania. This of course isn’t any different than any other bull market such as the stock market or housing market however one of they differences is the extreme price volatility. Prices can be whipsawed up and down sometimes by double digit percentages in a day which is how so many people manage to make large sums of money during bull runs. You hear stories about “crypto millionaires” driving their Lamborghini’s and creating generational wealth. Oddly enough you don’t hear much about the folks who lost everything and went broke. Those stories just aren’t fun however much they serve as cautionary tales for prudent investors. That said, it is somewhat assumed that the next/current bull run will be perhaps a little more subdued than others with speculation that subsequent bull runs being even less volatile as there is more adoption of cryptocurrencies and they become more mainstream thus dampening the extreme price gyrations.
For people who don’t believe in cryptocurrencies and think they are likely just a pyramid scheme, I’d have to say that I can understand where they are coming from. However, regardless of their thoughts on cryptocurrencies it can’t be denied that the technology behind them is here to stay. Known as web 3, it is the next generation of technology which in this case is built on blockchain technology. The blockchain genie is out of the bottle and can’t be put back in. What is not known to most people is the extent to which it is currently being utilized and what will be the inevitable increase in usage into most aspects of our day to day lives.
To emphasize this, point, as much as the government tries to dismiss cryptocurrencies and keep adoption to a minimum there is no doubt that it is working on its own digital currency. There has been much talk lately about Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC’s). The thought is that a CBDC would replace the US dollar and eliminate cash altogether. If this does happen, it won’t end well for the masses but I’ll go into that topic in more detail in another post.
For people who don’t believe in cryptocurrencies and think they are likely just a pyramid scheme, I’d have to say that I can understand where they are coming from. However, regardless of their thoughts on cryptocurrencies it can’t be denied that the technology behind them is here to stay. Known as web 3, it is the next generation of technology which in this case is built on blockchain technology. The blockchain genie is out of the bottle and can’t be put back in. What is not known to most people is the extent to which it is currently being utilized and what will be the inevitable increase in usage into most aspects of our day to day lives.
To emphasize this, point, as much as the government tries to dismiss cryptocurrencies and keep adoption to a minimum there is no doubt that it is working on its own digital currency. There has been much talk lately about Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC’s). The thought is that a CBDC would replace the US dollar and eliminate cash altogether. If this does happen, it won’t end well for the masses but I’ll go into that topic in more detail in another post.
So the question remains, is this an actual bull run or just a temporary blip as we await the next bull run? Talk of a Bitcoin ETF also has been adding to the price surge and time will tell if it gets approved. The next few month should prove interesting in the crypto world.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
This article is for information purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Macro Ark is not certified to provide any financial advice.
December 5, 2023
Fractional Reserve Banking
If you are new to macro economics, you likely haven’t heard the term “fractional reserve banking”. So what is fractional reserve banking? Investopedia defines it as “a system in which only a fraction of bank deposits are required to be available for withdrawal. Banks only need to keep a specific amount of cash on hand and can create loans from the money you deposit.”
This method of banking is used throughout the world and goes back centuries and has benefits as well as drawbacks. I would venture to guess that most people think that when they make a cash deposit into their bank that the money sits in a vault until it gets used by the depositor for payments or withdrawn. Under fractional reserve banking, this certainly is not the case.
For instance, if a nation’s central bank sets the require reserve ration as 1/3, then for every $100 of cash deposits, the bank must hold $33.33 on hand. So what does the bank do with the rest of the other $66.66? The simple answer is that the rest gets loaned out. The bank will use the other 2/3 of the deposit as a loans to other clients of the bank. If you think about it, without fractional reserve banking, how else would banks have money to loan to consumers? They have to get the money from somewhere so it makes sense that other deposits are therefore the source of the loans. You could make the case that banks could just borrow the money from the Federal Reserve which they do but usually only to address issues that they may be having getting funding. I can write about these issues on this post but will save that for another time. Okay, so knowing this, the likely question is – what happens if all of or at least a majority of the bank’s depositors try to withdraw their cash at the same time? This is called a “run on banks” or “bank run” and isn’t good. Immediately after the 1929 stock market crash, consumers were fearful of losing their money so lined up at their banks to get their cash out. As you can imagine, the only cash on hand was insufficient to cover all of the customer deposits leaving most customers without their money. The situation was repeated around the globe and was one more element of the financial crisis leading to the Great Depression.
Now let’s get back to the reason for fractional reserve banking which I briefly mentioned earlier. Remember, banks are businesses and they are in business to make money. They make money through charging interest on the money they loan out. This is clearly an over simplification of the banking process but that’s kind of the point of my blog, Macroark.com – trying to keep things simple. When a bank loans out the deposits not kept in reserve, a borrower of the loan spends the money which then ends up as a deposit in another bank, thus increasing the money supply. This is known as the “multiplier effect”. The process then continues to repeat itself over and over and is a key driver of economic growth however to a certain degree puts the economy at risk in that the more the multiplier effect comes into play, the more the economy grows based on an increasingly smaller pool of actual cash deposits. In the US, the reserve ratio is now at 0%, meaning 100% of deposits can be used as loans. What could go wrong right? The rate was made 0% in March of 2020 in an attempt encourage lending during the pandemic and keep the economy from going into recession.
So now the question is, how do banks prevent bank runs nowadays? Well technically, they can’t prevent a bank run however the federal government created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) through the Banking Act of 1933. The FDIC is an independent agency that insures individual deposits up to $250,000. The FDIC came into play earlier this year with the failure of several notable banks. As unfortunate as these bank failures were, they did educate many people on the FDIC and perhaps generated some interest in economics. The key point is that if you have over $250,000 in deposits, they should be spread over multiple accounts so as to ensure none are over $250,000 and thus at risk for losing the difference to the insured amount. There is much more detail that can be written about this topic which I will likely do at a later date but I’ll end here. The key takeaway here is that the money you deposit into a bank most likely will be loaned out to other customers however it is insured up to $250,000 per account.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial analyst and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for information purposes only.
November 19, 2023
The Velocity of Money and The Money Supply
Here’s a term that most people don’t hear about must but is an important aspect of macroeconomics. The term is “velocity of money”. So we all know what velocity means but how does this apply to money? Think of the velocity of money as how fast a dollar bill changes hands in a fixed amount of time. In retail or manufacturing this would be described as “inventory turns”. In macroeconomic terms it means the rate at which money circulates in an economy. It quantifies how fast money is spent.
Why is the velocity of money important? The velocity of money is a component of the quantity theory of money. Okay, so what’s the quantity theory of money? According to Investopedia, “The quantity theory of money is an idea that the “the general price level of goods and services is proportional to the money supply in an economy”. With that, if the volume of money in an economy doubles, the prices of goods and services in the economy will double, ceteris paribus. This as we now know due to recent events (quantitative easy, stimulus checks) leads to inflation.
The equation for the quantity theory of money is M * V = P * Y and breaks down as follows:
M (Money Supply): M represents the total supply of money in an economy, including currency, demand deposits, and other liquid assets.
V (Velocity of Money): As mentioned earlier, V measures the rate at which money changes hands. A higher velocity indicates that money is being spent more frequently, which can be a sign of strong economic activity.
P (Price Level): P represents the general price level in the economy. Inflation or deflation can affect the price level, and changes in P can influence the value of money.
Y (Real GDP): Y stands for the real gross domestic product, which represents the total value of goods and services produced in an economy, adjusted for inflation.
If velocity is stable, any change to the money supply will have a predictable impact on price levels and therefore GDP. Conversely, variations in the velocity of money can muddy the relationship and make it more challenging to predict the effects of changes in the money supply.
It must be pointed out that the velocity of money is calculated as a component of the equation to maintain the equation’s balance. Changes in V can be influenced by various factors, including shifts in consumer and business spending habits, technological innovations, changes in the financial system, and economic conditions. As a result, the velocity of money can fluctuate over time, making it a dynamic and important variable in macroeconomic analysis.
We need to understand the idea of the velocity of money since it helps economists and policymakers understand the relationship between the money supply and economic activity. As individuals we can also use the velocity of money to gauge the economy although not without some research. Most macroeconomic news you will hear is from mainstream media but I rarely hear anyone talk about the velocity of money. That said, there is of course no shortage of online content so any search engine can help you find enough information to help in your research. For most, it could be too much detail to use in any analysis however for those so inclined it is a useful tool to anyone thinking of making big decisions such as buying a house or car or other investments. At the very least, anyone worried about the economy can use it to make them feel better or worse.
This leads to the next topic of this post — the money supply. Investopedia defines the money supply as “The money supply is the sum total of all of the currency and other liquid assets in a country’s economy on the date measured. The money supply includes all cash in circulation and all bank deposits that the account holder can easily convert to cash.”
In regards to the money, supply you will hear or read about M1, M2, and M3. These refer to different measures of the money supply in an economy. When discussing M1, M2 and M3 I like to simplify the definition by seeing it in terms of liquidity (i.e. how easily an asset can be converted to cash), with M1 being the most liquid, followed in suit by M2 and finally M3.
M1 Money Supply: M1 represents the most liquid form of money and includes the components that are readily available for transactions. Common components of M1 typically include:
- Currency (physical cash) in circulation
- Demand deposits: Checking accounts and other similar accounts at banks or financial institutions that allow depositors to withdraw money on demand.
M2 Money Supply: M2 is a broader measure of the money supply and includes components that are slightly less liquid than those in M1. M2 includes all of M1 and adds the following components:
- Savings accounts: Deposits in savings accounts.
Time deposits: Certificates of deposit (CDs) with maturities of less than $100,000. - Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs): Accounts that offer a combination of interest-bearing features and limited check-writing capabilities.
- Other near-money assets: Certain short-term, liquid investments, such as Treasury bills and commercial paper.
M3 Money Supply: M3 is an even broader measure of the money supply that includes components that are even less liquid than those in M2. M3 is not as commonly used or reported as M1 and M2. M3 includes all of M2 and adds the following components:
- Large time deposits: Certificates of deposit (CDs) with maturities of $100,000 or more.
- Institutional money market funds: Money market funds that are typically used by large institutional investors.
- Repurchase agreements (repos): Short-term loans where one party sells securities to another party with the agreement to repurchase them at a later date.
- Large liquid assets: Other large liquid assets not included in M2, such as institutional holdings of Treasury securities.
At this point, we now see yet more piece of the macroeconomic puzzle and understand better how changes in something such as the money supply or the velocity of money can have far reaching effects on the economy. Knowing these elements can help one in planning both their near term and long term future as one looks to invest, purchase, save and consume. Remember that the goal is to be as educated as possible in macroeconomic matters to help you plan for the best future possible.
Note that I am not a certified financial analyst and am in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This post is for information purposes only.
October 29, 2023
What is Cryptocurrency?
What is crypto? In the context of alternate forms of money, crypto is a shortened abbreviation of cryptocurrency. Coming from the term cryptography which is defined by Merriam-Webster’s dictionary as:
- secret writing
- the enciphering and deciphering of messages in secret code or cipher
- the computerized encoding and decoding of information
Knowing this helps to somewhat understand what a cryptocurrency is. It is a currency that only exits digitally through the use of cryptography. Okay, so now what? Well, we know that you can’t see or hold it and also to be an actual currency it must meet the three criteria below:
- be a medium of exchange – used to buy things
- be a unit of account – allows for transactions to be carried out
- be a store of value – keeps its value to be used later (therefore can be a medium of exchange)
So if something is digital and meets the three criteria above is it necessarily a cryptocurrency? A cryptocurrency is not controlled by any government or other central authority and is decentralized, in that it exists on a decentralized network that relies on a system of computers that validate and record transactions to the blockchain. A blockchain is a distributed and immutable ledger that records all transactions across the network of nodes around the globe. This network ensures transparency and security.
Cryptocurrencies and their associated transactions allow for privacy in that the identity of the currency in a transaction is only know through a public address. The public address is an alpha numeric chain of characters that is to receive cryptocurrency tokens. Some cryptocurrencies have a limited supply while others have an unlimited supply. The most readily known cryptocurrency with a capped supply is Bitcoin which has a max supply of 21 million. This was done by design by the “inventor” Satoshi Nakamoto when he created Bitcoin in 2009. The intent is to eventually create scarcity so as to keep the supply from growing and thus devaluing Bitcoin such as we see with any fiat currency (think US dollar and money printing causing inflation). With a finite supply, the value will also naturally increase as the available supply decreases.
For a transaction to occur on the blockchain a miner must validate a mathematical problem. The transaction is then verified and forever on the blockchain as blockchains are immutable. The reward for validating the transaction is newly created cryptocurrency coins which are then considered transactions fees. I will go into more detail about blockchain in a later post but I do want to comment on the difference between a “token” and a “coin”. Essentially, a coin exists on its own blockchain such as Bitcoin or Ethereum. A token resides on an existing blockchain. For instance, a Shiba Inu token exists on the Ethereum blockchain.
Another characteristic of cryptocurrencies is their volatility. The price can swing dramatically over very brief periods of time. This can be caused by macroeconomic events, regulatory changes, market sentiment and what is known as “FUD” which stands for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. Oftentimes, people reporting bad news about the crypto market or a specific cryptocurrency are accused of spreading FUD so as to drive the price down and thus create a better buying opportunity.
One obstacle that cryptocurrencies face is the US Securities and Exchange Commission. There seems to be a great deal of debate at the SEC about which cryptocurrencies are securities (basically a security is a financial instrument such as a stock or bond). Bitcoin has been ruled to not be a security due to its anonymous and open source origins. Ethereum was also declared to not be a security earlier this year as well. However, the debate continues with other cryptocurrencies and has wide reaching repercussions in the crypto world should many of the other tokens and coins be declared securities. Only time will tell what the regulatory ramifications will be. I will to write about that when the time comes.
If a community of people use a cryptocurrency such as one uses tokens at an arcade and if it meets the 3 criteria noted above, you can make the case that it is a currency. It just exists in a parallel money system. Advocates of cryptocurrencies will tell you that this alternate money system will serve as a save haven for wealth should the current fiat system collapse. Or at the very least provide options for investments and speed of transactions.
One aspect of cryptocurrencies that is considered a benefit is that since it is not part of the fiat banking system, owners of tokens or coins are responsible for their safe storage. This means that they can leave them on the exchange that they bought them on or store them in a “hot” or “cold” wallet. Although the easier option, by leaving coins on an exchange you risk losing them to hackers or bankruptcy of the exchange. Unlike banks, the coins are not FDIC insured so owners are putting their investments at risk by leaving them on the exchange. A “hot wallet” is a private digital wallet that is accessible by only the owner of the wallet but it is online so although it is more secure than leaving coins on an exchange, they are not as secure as “cold wallets”. Hot wallets are accessible only by using a private key. Cold wallets have the same basic function as hot wallets but they store coins and tokens offline. A cold wallet somewhat resembles a USB drive drive however be aware that the coins or tokens are not actually stored on the wallet. They are actually stored on the blockchain. The wallet is merely a tool to unlock access to the coins on the blockchain.
It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve and only time will tell the extent of adoption across the world. Many cryptocurrencies could go to zero however there are some cryptocurrencies with actual real world applications that could significantly change the way some industries or business practices operate. I will write about these in subsequent posts and will go into more detail about them at that time. Lastly, remember that regulations vary across different countries so if you decide to invest, do your research on both general information about your investment as well as local regulations. Also, be sure to know the tax implications as well. As we all know, tax laws change on a regular basis and and cryptocurrencies will not be spared the long arm of the tax man.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
This article is for information purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Macro Ark is not certified to provide any financial advice.
October 16, 2023
Fiat Currency
Fiat. Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary defines fiat as:
- an authoritative or arbitrary order: decree (government by fiat)
- an authoritative determination: dictate (a fiat of conscience)
- a command or act of will that creates something without or as if without further effort (according to the Bible, the world was created by fiat)
So what does this have to do with money and why am I writing about it? Let’s go back to the beginning. In this case, the beginning will be ancient civilizations or tribes of people. For thousands of year, people used a variety of things for their unit of account, meaning what they used as “currency” to transact goods and services. Some of these items were seashells, glass beads, salt, cocoa beans, even dolphin teeth and of course, our old friend gold. You get the idea. If an item has value to a group of people and over time it could and often did start to be used as money (currency).
- be a medium of exchange – used to buy things
- be a store of value – keeps its value to be used later (therefore can be a medium of exchange)
- be a unit of account – allows for transactions to be carried out
Okay, so now we know the basic functions of money and some of the early forms it took. Over time however, metal coinage tended to win out and became the currencies of empires. Civilizations such as China, the Roman Empire and Greek city states among others used coins which tended to be made of gold, silver and copper. Fiat currency thus became any currency that a government declared (by decree or fiat) and backed by the government that issues it. This makes sense from a control standpoint. If you could make and distribute the coin of the realm, you effectively controlled the economy and thus the people. As with any fiat currency, Inflation and debasement can find it’s way into the the money supply so these are not a new phenomenon that started over the last century.
So now we have governments that can create and issue money at will. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing if the fiat currency is backed by something other than the paper it is printed on and a promise. Fiat currencies oftentimes were backed by gold, meaning paper money could be converted to a fixed amount of gold. A person could then be assured that the value of the currency would be directly tied to the price of gold. This is known as being on the “gold standard”. Although very common in the 19th century, most nations abandoned the gold standard by the early 20th century. Great Britain did so in 1931 and the US did initially in 1933 and finally abandoning what was left by 1973.
At this point, once a nation abandons the gold standard, the currency has nothing to back it up other than the “promise” of the government that it is still legal tender and faith by the people that it will not collapse. This becomes problematic for several reasons. For one, without being backed by gold, a currency can fluctuate against the currencies of other nations. Also, banks have what is known as the “required reserve ratio”. This means that a bank can lend out to consumers, a fraction of its money on hand as loans. This ratio has changed over the years and is different in every country. The idea is to allow for economic growth by being able to issue more loans since more loans can be issued that the value of cash in banks. This isn’t a bad thing when the reserve ratio is higher such as one third of all deposits. More loans in the economy typically mean more economic growth which is what any government, bank or citizens want.
The obvious question then is what happens if everyone tries to withdrawal their money at once? Well unfortunately, the result isn’t good. We saw in 1929 when the stock market crashed that millions of Americans tried to get their money out of the banks at once and there wasn’t enough money in the banks, leaving many empty handed. This is known as a “run on banks”.
Clearly a painful experience for those losing out of their money. That said, nothing changed with the reserve ratio other than over time, the ratio became smaller and smaller, gradually approaching zero. The work around for this is the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Banks that are FDIC insured will reimburse accounts up to $250,000 in the event of a bank run or failure. Recent bank failures in 2023 tested the FDIC and although there was some pain for those with accounts over $250,000, the system essentially worked.
So now that I’ve gone over a general overview of our banks, what might be an issue with fiat currency that is not pegged to gold? If you guessed inflation, you would be correct. Although inflation has been around since the beginning of our banking system, the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 moved the needle significantly in that the Federal Reserve now could print print money seemingly at will. We’ve seen this during the 2008 crisis with quantitative easing. The term “printing money” however is a misnomer.
What is really happening when we say the Fed is “printing money” is that the Fed purchases government bonds or other financial assets from banks and pays for them in dollars. This causes a flood of dollars into the money supply. Most people think that inflation means the increase in the price of goods or services however inflation is really an increase in the amount of dollars in circulation. The increase in prices is therefore a response to the increase in the money supply. If there is more money in the system chasing the same amount of goods and services, the prices will naturally go higher.
Although no inflation is good as it erodes the purchasing power of the dollar over time, the amount of money “printed” during the many quantitative easing phases plus the financial stimulus payments beginning in 2020 flooded the economy with so many dollars that we have been in an inflationary period for several years. This is why the Fed is now raising interest rates in an attempt to decrease demand by making items (through loans) more expensive. The Fed is now employing “quantitative tightening” which means it is sucking the excess money back from the banks and out of the system.
As of today, the plan seems to be working with interest rates higher than we have seen in years and “inflation” seemingly leveling off or decreasing. Although it’s too early to tell what the end result will be this all ties back to the idea of fiat currency. If the dollar had been pegged to gold the amount of money printing would not have happened as there wouldn’t have been enough gold to back the excess dollars.
With that, the fate of the US dollar is unknown. We seem to be almost at a crossroads with staying with the current fiat system or possible moving toward something new such as a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Or perhaps going to some sort of gold backed dollar again. Whatever road we go down it is sure to be interesting if if not somewhat bumpy.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
This article is for information purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Macro Ark is not certified to provide any financial advice.
Meriam-Webster
October 4, 2023
Supply and Demand
Let’s talk supply and demand. In a free economy, supply and demand are two fundamental drivers of the economy. This goes back thousands of years – even if back then the idea wasn’t necessarily known as supply and demand. So what does this mean? Well, at the most basic level, if there is demand (essentially, the needs or wants of an individual, business or other entity) then some entrepreneur will realize this and begin the process to provide the items that is desired. This would be supply. Seems simple enough.
But what does the supply and demand process really mean for an economy and how does it trigger production and what prices should be charged? Also, what impacts do things like interest rates, unemployment levels, savings and investment have on the supply and demand of products or services individually or in the aggregate. Aggregate is the term for the total of many. In this case, the long term supply curve is the aggregate of the short term supply curves for a given period of time. The same holds true for the long term demand curve. In the graph shown on this post, the X axis measures the price of a good or service. The Y axis measures quantity.
The supply curve starts at the lower left at low prices and low quantities and moves to the upper right, showing the relationship between the price of the good and the quantity supplied by producers. This reflects the law of supply, which states that all else being equal, as the price of a good increases, more of it will be supplied as producers are incentivized to produce more.
The demand curve starts at higher prices and lower quantities and then move to the lower right towards lower prices and higher quantities. This reflects the law of demand that shows that as the price of a good or service decreases, the quantity demanded by the market increases, all else being equal. Note that in macroeconomics, the phrase “all else being equal” is called “ceteris paribus”. I am telling you this in since it is a phrase frequently used in economic discussions and writings.
The market price of a good or service is at the intersection of the supply and demand curve. This price point is known as “equilibrium”. Sometimes this intersection can be the market price and shows where the market is in “equilibrium”. Should the market price be above equilibrium, this will create a surplus in the market as producers will produce more to increase revenue. Conversely, if the market price is below equilibrium, this creates a shortage of goods since the producers lose incentive to produce.
The demand curve starts at higher prices and lower quantities and then move to the lower right towards lower prices and higher quantities. This reflects the law of demand that shows that as the price of a good or service decreases, the quantity demanded by the market increases, all else being equal. Note that in macroeconomics, the phrase “all else being equal” is called “ceteris paribus”. I am telling you this in since it is a phrase frequently used in economic discussions and writings.
The market price of a good or service is at the intersection of the supply and demand curve. This price point is known as “equilibrium”. Sometimes this intersection can be the market price and shows where the market is in “equilibrium”. Should the market price be above equilibrium, this will create a surplus in the market as producers will produce more to increase revenue. Conversely, if the market price is below equilibrium, this creates a shortage of goods since the producers lose incentive to produce.
The next point regarding supply and demand that I want to point out is the concept of elastic vs inelastic commodities. Elastic commodities are goods that are more sensitive to market prices than inelastic goods. For example, goods that are nice to have but not necessary or easily substituted are considered to be elastic. Examples include:
- luxury Goods
- some foods (butter vs margarine)
- cereal
- electronics
Inelastic goods are necessities that must be purchased and are not as sensitive to increases in market prices. Examples include:
- gasoline
- prescription drugs
- electricity
So why do we need to understand supply and demand? The take away is that at the macro level the law of supply and demand is used as planning tool. Companies need to understand supply and demand as they plan production and introduce products to the market. Understanding this for businesses allows for planning of staffing, raw materials, inventories and sales. Governments need to understand supply and demand as they plan fiscal and monetary polices. The Federal Reserve needs to pay attention to supply and demand as they decide what to do with interest rates. The consumer typically needs to know for household budgeting and large purchasing decisions such as a house or car.
To be sure, there are likely no individuals staring at supply and demand graphs for their personal finances. Businesses and governments use frequently use supply and demand graphs as fundamental tools for analyzing and understanding market dynamics. Examples of what governments would use supply and demand analysis for include:
- Policy Analysis
- Monetary Policy
- Economic Planning
- Market Regulation
Business would use supply and demand analysis for:
- Pricing Strategies
- Production Planning
- Market Research
- Risk Management
- Investment Decisions
- Strategic Decision Making
This summary is clearly a very rudimentary overview of supply and demand. The intent is to provide the reader with a high level summary of the what and why of supply and demand without alienating readers with who may not know much about economics but seeking to learn.
Until Next Time,
Macro Ark
Let’s start with defining Macro Economics. Meriam-Webster defines macroeconomics as “a study of economics in terms of whole systems, especially with reference to general levels of output and income and to the interrelations among sectors of the economy.”
September 16, 2023
Macroeconomic Essential Terms
Certain aspects of macroeconomics are mentioned all the time on the news or in news articles which people hear or read but perhaps don’t fully understand what they mean or their significance. Some of these terms include GDP, interest rates/the federal funds rate, income, investment, savings and inflation. To gain a better understanding of the these economic drivers, they will be defined in short general terms that are easy to understand and therefore relatable to the macro environment.
GDP
GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product. In short it is the sum of all the goods and services produced by a nation in one year and therefore the size of a country’s economy. One approach to calculating GNP includes spending (government spending, investment spending by the federal government, investment and consumer spending) plus net exports. Increases in GDP each quarter are indicators of a growing economy while two consecutive quarter of shrinking GDP indicate that the nation is in a recession.
Interest Rate / Federal Funds Rate
When most people think of interest rates, they think of the amount a bank will charge for a loan or pay a consumer in a bank account and this would be correct. This is known as the “nominal” interest rate. What we also need to know however is the “real” interest rate which is the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation.
- Nominal Interest Rate: This is the stated interest rate on a loan or investment without adjusting for inflation. It’s the rate you see advertised, but it doesn’t take into account changes in the purchasing power of money due to inflation
- Real Interest Rate: The real interest rate adjusts the nominal rate for inflation, giving you the true rate of return or cost of borrowing in terms of purchasing power.
- Effective Interest Rate: The effective interest rate accounts for compounding, which means interest is calculated not just on the initial principal but also on the accumulated interest. It provides a more accurate measure of the true cost or return over time.
- Federal Funds Rate: The Federal Funds Rate is set by the Federal Reserve and as the interest rate that banks charge other banks for loans.
Income
Income is the flow of money received by individuals, businesses, households or other entities receive over a specific period of time. It is important since it is one of the measures of an economy’s health. Studying income can show income distribution through different segments of society and highlight income disparities between these segments. This will allow governments to make decisions to then better predict patterns in consumption, investment and savings.
Investment
Investment is the process whereby people, companies or entities acquire assets in the hope of generating future income or profits. Investments can be tangible such as equipment or machinery, financial such as stocks and bonds or intangible such as research and development. The key takeaway for investment is that is has an enormous impact in the economy by contributing to economic growth, job creation, and increased productivity.
Savings
In economic terms, savings is the portion of an individual’s or household’s income that is not spent on consumption goods and services. It can then be set aside to be used in the future for investments or consumption. There are many forms of savings including savings accounts, investments in financial assets like stocks and bonds, contributions to retirement accounts, or even holding physical assets like real estate or precious metals.
Inflation
Most people hear the word inflation and mistakenly think it means the cost of goods or services. This is actually a result of inflation since inflation is really an increase in the money supply. When the money supply increases there is now more money available in the economy a country’s currency to be devalued and therefore causing prices to rise. Inflation is a concern since it erodes the purchasing power of households and companies and therefore can have a profound impact on savings, investment and income. This then leads to reduced GDP which as we now know means a shrinking economy.
The definitions above are simplified and some are even self evident. However, knowing how they all fit together in the macroeconomic environment can give you a better understanding of what’s going on in your country and in your world. For example understanding inflation and interest rates has been having a direct impact on investment and purchasing decisions by households and companies over the last 3 years as we live navigate our way through the current economic environment. In subsequent post, we will go deeper into these and many other topics but for now the intent is to stay at the 30,000 foot level.
Until next time,
Macro Ark
August 27, 2023
The Macroeconomic Landscape
Let’s start with defining macroeconomics. Merriam-Webster defines macroeconomics as “a study of economics in terms of whole systems, especially with reference to general levels of output and income and to the interrelations among sectors of the economy.”
Once referred to as “The Dismal Science”, economics is essentially the study of human behavior. Why a science? Likely because as the forces that drive the economy such as interest rates, investment, monetary and fiscal policies, they drive human behavior changes in very predictable patterns. Unlike actual science however, economic factors are not bound by laws of physics, chemistry etc. People are perfectly able to act in un-predictable ways…….but they don’t. At least not in the aggregate.
Macroeconomics is interesting and important to know since it impacts each person’s life every day whether one realizes it or not. If interest rates go up or down, your life is impacted. The Federal Reserve prints money and your life is impacted. The key is to fully understand these impacts so as to be informed enough to make sound decisions and then better prepare for the short, medium and long term. Fiscal and monetary policies are both aspects of macroeconomics with fiscal policy (government spending and raising/lowering taxes) being executed by the federal government and monetary policy (changes in the interest rates and money supply) executed by the Federal Reserve.
By comparison, microeconomics is defined by Merriam-Webster as “a study of economics in terms of individual areas of activity (such as a firm)”. With that, microeconomics has been referred to as “the theory of the firm”. Although important to understand as well, typically, microeconomics is focused primarily on the smaller picture – hence the use of micro. To be fair, microeconomics certainly impacts the big picture but the but is primarily concerned with productivity and other more granular aspects of the economy such as supply and demand in specific goods, wages and the individual practices of companies.
In a broad sense, macroeconomics is a barometer of a nations overall health. Trends in unemployment, consumption, savings, interest rates and investment are measures that governments and central banks use to make decisions that can positively impact the economy and thus the nations citizens. Although the intention of fiscal and monetary policy is to help the economy in the long run, there is no doubt these policies can have negative downsides for individuals and least in the short term. This is why the understanding of macroeconomics is so important to each and every one of us. As we live our lives, knowing what governments and central banks are doing or plan to do will help you make decisions to benefit from those policy decisions both in the short and long terms.
A new and very small entrant into the macroeconomic picture is the role of crypto currencies and how they could impact the economy. Although still in their infancy, crypto currencies are doing a sufficient enough job of rocking the boat that policy makers have recently begun to take notice. So much so that CBDC’s (central bank digital currencies) are now being discussed in congress and it seems as though there is serious consideration being given to implementing a CBDC in the US. Subsequent articles will go deeper into crypto currencies but I didn’t see how I could write this article without a least mentioning crypto currencies.
Lastly I wanted to mention gold (and other precious metals) as an additional topic that is worth knowing about. Although gold is not the commodity it once was when the US was on the gold standard, it is still an indicator of sentiment in the market. Since the 1970’s it has fallen out of favor with investors however there now seems to be a renewed global interest in gold in that central banks around the world are now buying gold at record rates and thereby increasing global demand. Perhaps they now something the rest of us don’t and are preparing for one of several possible global economic events.
In subsequent articles I will delve more into a these topics and others so as to provide readers with more of any understanding of the macroeconomics and how to use this information to make to make sound decisions and be prepared for whatever might come our way.
Until next time,
Macro Ark
Note that I am not a certified financial planner and in no way qualified to offer financial advice. This article is for information purposes only.
Lastly I wanted to mention gold (and other precious metals) as an additional topic that is worth knowing about. Although gold is not the commodity it once was when the US was on the gold standard, it is still an indicator of sentiment in the market. Since the 1970’s it has fallen out of favor with investors however there now seems to be a renewed global interest in gold in that central banks around the world are now buying gold at record rates and thereby increasing global demand. Perhaps they now something the rest of us don’t and are preparing for one of several possible global economic events.Let’s start with defining Macro Economics. Meriam-Webster defines macroeconomics as “a study of economics in terms of whole systems, especially with reference to general levels of output and income and to the interrelations among sectors of the economy.”